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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Archive Loop [Re: tpratch]
      #39532 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:32 PM

Earlier, someone posted a link to the archive loop of NHC storm advisories for Hurricane Ivan. Low and behold, you can see one for Dennis, too!

Dennis NHC Archive Loop

Really uselful for comparing the last forecast track to the current one.
Maybe most of you gurus have known this was there all along, but this was a great little "A ha!" for me. Thanks to whomever posted the earlier Ivan link!

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Update: [Re: nl]
      #39533 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:34 PM

Quote:

is that something coming off of texas?




That's part of a system that went through DFW today. Apparently there was a cell about 80 miles across that was nasty weather.

A friend of mine looked at the weather radar, and then heard the weatherman state that there was a low chance of rain... I guess the station wasn't actually referring to the Dallas/Fort Worth area or else they'd have mentioned that storm


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Update: [Re: stormchazer]
      #39535 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

It appears we here in Peninsular Florida can calm down a bit.


What makes you think that???




DATA FROM A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION SHOWS THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO
PRESENT...BUT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT Dennis SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR
ABOUT 24 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE UKMET TAKING Dennis NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA...THE CANADIAN
TAKING Dennis NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN.

The Discussion points to some High Pressure still being in place over FL. I am not saying all clear, but the panic should calm down some. Keep and eye but I think this Discussion was somewhat promising for us here on the Central to South FL.




Hold on to your hats..the all clear signal hasn't been sounded..Did u read Clarks latest blog...the ridge slightly intensified today but should only be temporary..the UL feature diving down into the western Gulf is not strong enuff in the models...he is still thinking more northerly than northwest & says the models will probably shift back to the east during their next run

--------------------
RJB


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Update: [Re: Ron Basso]
      #39536 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:40 PM

I asked this last year but I can't remember now. What is the distance (in miles) between each line of either longitude or latitude?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Update: [Re: mud1967]
      #39538 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:42 PM

It varies by your latitude and longitude.
I use 65 statute miles for a rough guess.


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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka 28.67N 81.48W
Re: Update: [Re: mud1967]
      #39539 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:43 PM

Finally decided to get my temporary password to log on again.

If I'm not mistaken, approximately 60 miles between each degree.


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gavsie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 18
Loc: Seminole Fl
Re: Update: [Re: Ron Basso]
      #39540 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:43 PM

I'm new at this, I am taking a Met class right now but so much of this is new to me. I just watched the news and the met's are all going back and forth about changes in the track. I live right on the coast in Seminole I'd love to know where this monster is going. If the high system gives way at all I assume we will see alot of winds and showers over here. True? I love this site and I have been a dedicated reader after 2004. I was awaiting Charley when I found it. You guys do a great job. Love the info.
Thanks


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Question for Clark..or any Met here! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39541 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:43 PM

Colleen -- I think they are tempering their forecasts with respect to the intermediate model runs (6z, 18Z) because of it, but perhaps not entirely discounting the data. They temper their forecast changes with regards to the models normally, but perhaps a bit more so here.

The models could also be picking up on something else -- like the things I noted in the current blog post -- but until the full suite of 00Z runs comes out, it'll be tough to tell.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Update: [Re: danielw]
      #39542 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:43 PM

Okay. Thanks. That helps.

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John C
Unregistered




Re: Update: [Re: mud1967]
      #39543 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:46 PM

New Thread posted move on over.......

jc


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
New Thread: Dennis and Cuba [Re: mud1967]
      #39544 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:46 PM

Please post there. Thanks

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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX 30.65N 96.30W
Re: Question for Clark..or any Met here! [Re: Clark]
      #39545 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:48 PM

Quote:

-- but until the full suite of 00Z runs comes out, it'll be tough to tell.




Around what time do they become available publicly. I assume 00Z is midnight eastern time. How long after then until we can access them?

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Dennis [Re: mud1967]
      #39546 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:49 PM

It seems to me the this storm really wants to go right.Every chance it gets it goes more right.Remember NHC had it going over far western Cuba just a few hours ago.Now it is most likely to go over central Cuba.One of my fears is that we could wake up Saturday morning and South Florida could be under the gun with very little notice.It will be so close to South Florida.Any input from the pros on this?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Question for Clark..or any Met here! [Re: VandyBrad]
      #39549 - Thu Jul 07 2005 11:52 PM

00z is midnight Greenwich Mean Time, or out in England along the Prime Meridian. Currently, that corresponds to 8pm ET. The 00Z models are starting to come out now and should continue to do so at regular intervals throughout the night.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Question for Clark..or any Met here! [Re: Clark]
      #39557 - Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 AM

Clark,

I have been getting many pm's about my earlier prediction,some are making me out to be some weather God.I do not feel comfortable with this.I would like you to give everyone your expert opinon on what may happen to south Florida.I have been doing this for about 30 years but you are an expert.This is a very dangeous storm,and I do not want people to listen to me only.If you saw some of the pm's,you would understand my concern.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Update: [Re: Unregistered User]
      #39649 - Fri Jul 08 2005 05:14 AM

Fox 35 WOFL, Glenn Richards said it was going to stay 180 miles off the coast

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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MC Hurricane
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Newport News,VA
Re: Update: [Re: FireAng85]
      #39713 - Fri Jul 08 2005 08:43 AM

Has any Cat.4 hurricanes made landfall in the Florida Panhandle,because usually storms close to Cat.4 (ex.Opal and Ivan) will make landfall :?:

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ddocks70s
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Re: Question for Clark..or any Met here! [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39797 - Fri Jul 08 2005 10:23 AM

I have only been in 2 Hurricanes. Georges in Key Largo and Andrew in the gables. Lots of "mandatory evacuations" Have done considerable research on historical storms that have hit the Keys. I have learned some things. My evacuation from the MM105 area in 1992 was unneccesary. But at the time, I thought it would come ashore further south than Homestead. When Georges came calling in 1998. I did not evacuate. I knew that it would not be too bad for the relatively high ground in Upper Key Largo. Further south had some flooding and storm surge. Donna hit the Upper Keys in 1960 and was much stronger. It emptied all of the water out of Blackwater Sound. Yet the higher ground in Key Largo was not covered with saltwater. The famous 1935 storm devastated the Matecumbes. Islamorada is not a place to ride out anything beyond a CAT2. Key West, on the other hand, has weathered storms well in the past, and hasn't had a monster in a long time. If I lived in Marathon, there have been many storms that would have driven me south to KW instead of Miami. This one, Dennis, I'm not so sure. Key West might host this CAT4. I hope it swings out past the Marquesas and the Fort but it doesn't look good.

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