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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Undramatic Pause
      #48335 - Fri Aug 19 2005 01:08 PM

Some requests were made for a new thread, so I'm obliging.. even though we haven't milked the last one for all it's worth.
Irene departed to colder climes yesterday, ending the 2 1/2 weeks we'd had of there being an active system in the North Atlantic basin. Right now there are only a couple things of interest in the basin. One is the remnant of TD 10 which is still cantering towards the Bahamas... it is barely present. Most of the global models are showing lower pressures in the Western Caribbean migrating towards the Gulf... there is no strong feature apparent to take advantage of this predicted environment.
The African wave train is behaving more like the African dust train; waves have been weak and are losing definition as they move off.. in recent days. Some of the models show a stronger wave this weekend, but we'll just have to wait and see. It is that time of the year.
For the weekend, the prospects of a system are fairly low... unless something changes dramatically. Enjoy the peace and quiet, because it's usually hard to come by in late August.
HF

(reposted to fix links)
Event Related Links
General Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin

Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 21 2005 07:44 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48336 - Fri Aug 19 2005 01:39 PM

I like the new thread title. An "undramatic pause" is what we need in NW Florida. The good news is that they hope to have mail delivery back to Pensacola beach by Sept, and FEMA trailers can now return. Yesterday Ivan was reclassified as the second most costly hurricane in US history. A large portion of Santa Rosa Island has actually moved north 50 yards because of Ivan and Dennis. Swimming has become dangerous because of "sinkholes " forming in the surf along the shore. Just testamonial as to how the effects of a major storm can go on for years.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48337 - Fri Aug 19 2005 01:53 PM

From Tampa Bay NWS PM Disc:

BY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DGEX SHOW REMNANTS OF TD #10 MOVING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS THIS FEATURE OUT TO THE NORTH KEEPING IT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE PENINSULA. IF THE GFS/DGEX SOLUTION PANS OUT...OR IF THIS SYSTEMS GETS BETTER ORGANIZED THEN WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS IN LATER FORECASTS...

Let's hope so - this is supposed to be the rainy season. I have recorded a paltry 1.3 in of rain so far for August on the west coast of FL.

--------------------
RJB


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48338 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:08 PM

I saw that earlier myself. Do you happen to know a link to the NAM model they mentioned? Or is it a model that isn't available to the public?

--------------------------------------

still learning and learning and learning


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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48339 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:25 PM

HF, or anyone!!

Can you explain why the RECON flights for the 20/21?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 20/1800Z A. 21/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0210A INVEST B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE
C. 20/1600Z C. 21/0930Z
D. 22.5N 71.0W D. 22.5N 74.5W
E. 20/1700Z TO 20/2130Z E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

Edited by The Force 2005 (Fri Aug 19 2005 02:27 PM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48340 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:36 PM

We had 2 In 2 days.We don't need more rain and im only 50 miles from you its hit and miss in Fl some get it some don't.

http://weathercenter.com/forecast/discussion.htm

This link will give you all that you posted and more about what they think enjoy.

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 19 2005 02:37 PM)


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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
NAM Model (was Undramatic Pause) [Re: Hootowl]
      #48341 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:42 PM

Quote:

I saw that earlier myself. Do you happen to know a link to the NAM model they mentioned? Or is it a model that isn't available to the public?



Went searching for this quick and found it at:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/greenstein/models.htm

Also found this linked right off of it...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
Looks like I'm going to have a little fun playing...

Jax Chris


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: The Force 2005]
      #48342 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:47 PM

Well that certainly is interesting and surprising. The recon schedule reflects that it was issued at 1pm EDT today. Definitely seems odd, given the current appearance of TD10's remnants and the discussion of it in the 205 pm NHC discussion.

I can't offer any real answer as to why, but I guess there are 3 main possibilities: error (e.g., prepared yesterday, but not intended to be issued unless the area maintained some organization); issued in an abundance of caution (seems odd--in the unlikely event of re-organization, could get a flight out with or without such a plan existing); plan to use as training missions if former TD 10 is still unorganized (seems odd, too; there are plenty of other training missions, and, given the limited budget, plenty of opportunities for real investigation undoubtedly on the horizon).


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48343 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:50 PM

Navy Put 10 back up know could it possbly still reoganize.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48344 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:55 PM

Boy, has anyone taken a look at the Wave rolling off the African coast. This looks like the one the global models have been advertising for the last week. Pretty impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: NONAME]
      #48345 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:55 PM

Of course it could reorganize, but is it likely enough to plan recon for the next 2 days? I doubt it. Now I'm curious enough to poke around the models to see if there's been some change that would serve as the basis for that plan.

If I'm reading this correctly, I see in today's recon reports that there was a high-altitude flight somewhere in the general vicinity of TD10's remnants that sent back 4 recon reports. I wouldn't have even paid any attention to that, or gone looking for it, but I guess there's some small chance that resulted in some sort of thought that there is a little more possibililty of regeneration?

I know I keep writing this, but this seems odd.

Edited by Brad in Miami (Fri Aug 19 2005 02:56 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48346 - Fri Aug 19 2005 02:59 PM

There is some circulation within the remnants- it may be a case of better being safe then sorry if nature pulls a surprise.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: The Force 2005]
      #48347 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:04 PM

They probably have a budgeted minimum amount for this month that they need to use up.
Anyway wave height signatures pick up that strong signal that will be moving off the african coast: http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/nata.html
as do all of the models. Which will probably be the next topic of discussion if the energizer bunny, north of PR, doesn't get a new set of duracells.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #48348 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:05 PM

Yeah, I suspect you're right rmbjoe. It does look a little better than it did this morning (although it couldn't have looked much worse), and the 2pm run of the tropical models puts whatever is left of the remnants in the general vicinity of where those 2 flights are planned. (Actually, initializing the system as a 25 kt depression - which obviously it is not - SHPS brought it to 70-some kts in 72 hours. Of course that means very little, if anything, in light of the disturbance's current lack of organization.)

Still seems odd to me, though.


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48349 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:23 PM

It is a bit odd. I guess if they figure they're going to have to fly home anyway, they might as well fly through it? Storm does look better on IR this afternoon (better being relative... it's not hard to look better than it did earlier). I believe if the remains were to resurrect, it would be somewhere in the ballpark of 67 W/20 N. I wouldn't count on it (in fact I really don't see it happening at all), but with the warm water temps, I guess anything is possible...

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newbie
Unregistered




Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: ralphfl]
      #48350 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:25 PM

50 mile from where in fla

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Undramatic Pause [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48351 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:29 PM

18z models like to push the remains of 10 into the gulf. If I'm not mistaken, high pressure is supposed to set up across FL during this time, meaning (correct me please) that if old TD 10 were to somehow survive enough to get into the Gulf (and I shudder to think with those temps) that it would likely head toward Texas or LA.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
Don't look now but... [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48352 - Fri Aug 19 2005 03:57 PM

No, I'm not trying to wishcast here
but I think there's a LLC at 21N 64.5W or so
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

it's weak, but I think the convection managed to create another low pressure center. Of course, one good puff of wind would kill it again... but... the environment looks a little more favorable this time around. though there's still some shear over the system...

just my thoughts
(I thought I saw it a a couple of hours ago but was hesitant... but now I'm a little more confident so I thought I'd mention it.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #48353 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:04 PM

I thought the same thing, and I agree with you. I am almost always wrong, so I think
we are good there
Will be nice to get confirmation tho....
It can be seen a little better on Ramsdis

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: Don't look now but... [Re: NewWatcher]
      #48355 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:15 PM

There is no surface circulation at the point you mention. There is a spin there, but it is above the surface. The very weak center of surface rotation near 21.5N 68W continues to move wnw and in its wake it is pulling a uniform southeasterly surface flow underneath the mid-level spin. It will be very difficult for any surface low to form under the mid-level spin in this scenario. It is not impossible, but the process would be quite slow.

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