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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4345
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
      #49322 - Wed Aug 24 2005 10:41 PM

11:00AM
Katrina is now a 60mph tropical storm, with the potential to intensify into a minimal hurricane over the next few hours before it makes landfall in southern Florida near midnight tonight. A recent reconnaisance report suggests that the pressure with the storm is lower -- now 990mb -- with flight level winds of 60kt on the S side and 55kt on the N side of the storm. They'll be providing reports throughout the day, so stay tuned for the latest.

6:30AM
There is some good news this morning regarding Katrina's intensity, as far as getting beyond much more than a category one hurricane. However, this still leaves south Florida with an approaching storm.


(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)

Katrina has not shaken the dry air intrusion like it appeared it might last night, keeping the storm a Tropical Storm, and reducing the chance for rapid strengthening a great deal. It looks like the forecast will hold as a minimal Category 1 hurricane at this time. It still has the chance to develop during the day. Mainly due to radar presentation

The track looks good, although the National Hurricane Center admits the error for direct landfall could be anywhere from slightly north of the current track all the way to the Keys. Some features may want to bend the system back south a bit, while others would trend it more north. This is important since the storm is forecast to slow forward movement during the day. The entire warning area still needs to prepare for the system.

More to come during the day...

Report conditions in your area/read other folks reports at this link(Registration not required):p/url]
Original Update
Katrina has strengthened some tonight, and is moving more west northwest tonight.
It is expected to slow down and strengthen some more.

Hurricane Warnings are now up from Vero Beach to Florida City, including Lake Okeechobee.

Folks in the warning areas will need to prepare for the storm as soon as possible. I'd prepare for a Category 2 storm, even if it doesn't make it that high. The uncertainty with intensity is high enough to cause concern. Especially in Broward and Palm Beach counties. If you are in the warning areas, listen to local media and governmental agencies.

The current forecast track seems good, it did make the westerly turn earlier as expected, after elongating a bit and finding a real center. It's currently moving westward toward Florida, and the forward speed is expected to slow.

If the current National Hurricane Center forecast verfies it will place a 90MPH hurricane near Broward County Friday morning.

Convection around the center is high, and conditions are becoming more favorible for strengthening.

Other factors for strengthening include the relatively small core of the storm, and the slow movement across south Florida will put up a potential for floods as well.



Event Related Links
General Links

Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other folks reports at this link (Registration not required):p/url]

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Emergency Management/County info
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Katrina

Google Map plot of Katrina


Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State
Bahamas Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

Invest 97L


NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L

Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:42 AM)


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City [Re: MikeC]
      #49330 - Wed Aug 24 2005 10:57 PM

Well, living in Ft Laud pretty much puts me in the direct path, and i'm preparing for a CAT 1 or maybe even 2. Gas stations around here are beginning to run out of gas already.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Miami Beach, FLA USA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Miami Beach, FLA
Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: MikeC]
      #49331 - Wed Aug 24 2005 10:58 PM

On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4345
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: Miami Beach, FLA USA]
      #49335 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:02 PM

Quote:

On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?




The GFDL shows a curve back to the southwest and down across the Florida keys, strengthening a great deal in the process, and then curving around Florida back into the Gulf. The initial position is already off, so I think it's fairly safe to toss that one out. The model spread is all over, from there to North Carolina. At this point there is no reason I can see to doubt the NHC's track over the next 24 hours.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: MikeC]
      #49336 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:04 PM

Quote:

Quote:

On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?




The GFDL shows a curve back to the southwest and down across the Florida keys, strengthening a great deal in the process, and then curving around Florida back into the Gulf. The initial position is already off, so I think it's fairly safe to toss that one out. The model spread is all over, from there to North Carolina. At this point there is no reason I can see to doubt the NHC's track over the next 24 hours.




Not to say you are wrong but the NHC is paying very close attention to the GFDL model:

This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.


--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: MikeC]
      #49337 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:05 PM

Looks like the center of circulation is now visible on the Miami radar:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

It also looks like it is moving north of west as it gets better organized/defined.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4345
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #49338 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:06 PM

Quote:


Not to say you are wrong but the NHC is paying very close attention to the GFDL model:

This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.





Aye, I think we can toss this particular run out, future ones are different. The next one should be more interesting. And I think the 24 hour track is pretty good, beyond that I have doubts. Just to clear that up.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: Miami Beach, FLA USA]
      #49339 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:08 PM

Quote:

On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?




Another angle for you. Depending on where you are on the island. You should be in the Right Front Quadrant...worst of the weather is usually there.
At what windspeed do they close the bridge?...Watch that angle too!


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: Miami Beach, FLA USA]
      #49340 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:10 PM

It appears that for that model to verify the ULL in the gulf and the ridge would both have to remain and basically draw the cyclone towards the WSW.

The GFDL is definitely an outlier here - its the only model showing this much influence of that weak ULL in the gulf - everything else seems to show that feature backing away and removing itself from the playing field.

I'd be warily watching this thing - if it looks to come anything south of west then be very concerned. Given that there's no consensus on this track I'd be prepared to act but not freak out at this point. The NHC is definitely paying attention to this solution but I wouldn't say they're endorsing it, and within the next 12 hours you should be able to determine if it looks like this is verifying or not. If the next GFDL update comes around to be more in line with consensus then you've got your answer.... likewise if other models start to shift south and west.

So long as motion isn't south of west I don't believe you're going to see the GFDL solution bear out.

Up here in the panhandle we're REALLY paying attention to that as well, because if that solution DOES verify then the odds of us getting a real pasting go WAY up. In fact, that particular model run and its potential to verify are basically what I'm watching in reference to the actual path of the storm in terms of attempting to calibrate the risk of it showing up in my back yard.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Welcome [Re: MikeC]
      #49341 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:12 PM

For those new to the boards, welcome! It's quite an active evening here -- we've had quite an active day already, with almost 300 posts in the course of the afternoon and evening hours. This will probably keep up through the weekend, but don't get lost or discouraged, say, if your post gets quickly sent back a page or two -- trust me, people are still reading it and a reply (if you asked a question) will be coming!

I hope you'll find the information here useful. Powered by Skeetobite's maps, users with a multitude of links and useful information, the professional meteorologists who post their thoughts here and on the blogs, and a leader (Mike) who puts a lot of time into making this site the best it can be, I think you'll find that Flhurricane.com/the CFHC has just about everything you need for informative and knowledgeable hurricane discussion. So please, feel free to jump into the conversation -- make sure you read the Forum Rules first, though! -- and welcome aboard.

The thoughts of many of the mets and other posters on this board can be found in this thread as well as the previous thread, in the blogs on the main page, and in the Storm Forum. Feel free to check those out and post a question if you have one, whether to the main board, appropriate thread, or via PM.

Those of you in the path of Katrina, please stay tuned to the NHC & local authorities for information regarding preparations and potential evacuations. The path and intensity of this storm as it crosses Florida and heads for the Gulf is still highly uncertain, making vigilence a key attribute at this time. We'll add information through the next few days to help you make those plans, but do remember -- always follow the advice of those in charge and recall that this site is an unofficial source.

Once again, welcome to those new to the boards -- and welcome back to those who haven't been here in awhile (however you may define it; for myself, it's 15 minutes; for others, it may be 15 months!).

-Clark

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: MikeC]
      #49342 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:12 PM

Quote:

Quote:


Not to say you are wrong but the NHC is paying very close attention to the GFDL model:

This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.





Aye, I think we can toss this particular run out, future ones are different. The next one should be more interesting. And I think the 24 hour track is pretty good, beyond that I have doubts. Just to clear that up.





I am in the same boat.I think the next 24 hrs they got right but IMO i dont think the track as it is now will stay the same across the state.I am going by the model runs i just seen on the TV where there were many GOOD models all over the map.There is no clear track like many storms so ALA charlie last year this storm could keep going when it hits the gulf or it may not even make it there.

I like the NOGAPS run as it tends to go along with the gdfl in going almost south of west before it hits the gulf.

But we shall see and i think some of the models still don't have a handle on it yet.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: danielw]
      #49344 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:14 PM

Causeway bridges usually close at 50mph.

Sorry for the one-liner, but it's relevant.

Keep safe down South, guys.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: MikeC]
      #49345 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:16 PM

Considering that two of the normally reliable models seem to be out to lunch (the GFS and the GFDL), there is probably less confidence in the forecast track than there would normally be. The latest forecast track basically assumes that little will change from the present motion in the next 36 hours, which is a safe forecast when the model guidance is divergent.

It does bother me that the normally reliable GFDL paints such a grim scenario. The 18Z run begins to slow the storm down and drift it SW beginning around 06Z tonight. I guess we'll see how that pans out. The 00Z model runs should be telling, since those will be the first model runs where the center of the system was well defined at the initial time.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4345
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run [Re: ralphfl]
      #49346 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:20 PM

The forecast track is earily due west, straight toward Dania Beach (I start to think of the Dania Beach Hurricane roller coaster at Boomers along I-95 there) and then across the state. I'm not so sure the straight due west is going to happen. I rarely see that. But tomorrow is going to be one of those roller coaster days as far as Katrina is concerned.

Really, the hurricane warning area seems a bit large for a storm forecast to move due west. This isn't like Charley where it was moving at an angle to the coast. I'd prepare either way in the warning area, even further north or south.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Bridges and Dvorak [Re: tpratch]
      #49347 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:22 PM

That type of one liner is Very Useful.
The bridges here usually close around 45 mph...as 50 is hard to handle a vehicle in.

I just checked the updated Dvorak numbers. Still at 3.1 .
However the eye temperature and the mean cloud temperature have Both dropped over the last hour.
0145Z-0245Z.
Eye cloud temp estimate is down 11.5C, and the mean cloud temp is down 7.4C.
This normally means that the storm is steady state or intensifying.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Bridges and Dvorak [Re: danielw]
      #49349 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:29 PM

any advice as far as for the tampa bay area....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Bridges and Dvorak [Re: danielw]
      #49350 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:29 PM

clark or any other met what you think of the NOGAPS run? it was so good early in season and nobody talking about it now why? and what is your thought on it.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Bridges and Dvorak [Re: ralphfl]
      #49351 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:31 PM

which run?

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Bridges and Dvorak [Re: scottsvb]
      #49352 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:35 PM

the 12Z run which is the only 1 i see right now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Bridges and Dvorak [Re: ralphfl]
      #49353 - Wed Aug 24 2005 11:38 PM

Also can anyone point me to a site which is free that i can see the latest Spagetti Model runs? i love to see them but only can find the boatus ones which are like 4 only.

Thanks.

========================================================

Set a record 20 posts in a row and no graveyard yah for me

don't push the signature ralph...

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 24 2005 11:42 PM)


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