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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: development-impaired [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #57560 - Sat Oct 01 2005 07:12 PM

That's not gonna make it Mare. The aarea ne of Puerto Rico is trying to organize though and I'd watch that. The models do some funky things with it ....like semi-developing it east of Florida, then deepening it more when it gets in the GOM, then taking it back across north Florida and up the eastern seaboard. I think TD 20 is destined for the BOC. Cheers!!

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: development-impaired [Re: Steve H1]
      #57561 - Sat Oct 01 2005 07:42 PM

Thanks Steve. I am going to watch the stuff in the east. We have been really lucky this season so far. I just don't really want the Central Florida Area to be the grand finale. We are not hurting from direct hits this year yet but we are hurting due to all the economic fall out from last year combined with the prices going up due to the slams that the Gulf Coast has taken this year. Florida is more financially vulnerable to a significant storm high Tropical storm or greater than she was at the beginning of the season last year,.It probably does not make sense to anyone who does not live in the land of the fantasy and tourist trap. But, we citizens are strapped with tourist season prices all year round.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: development-impaired [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #57562 - Sat Oct 01 2005 07:52 PM

Navy has upgraded to noname...do you think 7pm NHC advis will upgrade to Stan?

Has center reformed to the east?

Margie -- when a storm is listed as "NONAME," that indicates TD status. They will post an actual name if they feel it will be upgraded to TS status. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Sat Oct 01 2005 09:24 PM)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: development-impaired [Re: Margie]
      #57563 - Sat Oct 01 2005 08:15 PM

Hard to tell until this system gets more definition, but looks like its heading NW.

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weatherwatcher999
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Southwestern Ontario, Canada.
Re: development-impaired [Re: Steve H1]
      #57564 - Sat Oct 01 2005 10:12 PM

Ooh, TD 19 just got a big burst of convection in two places, it looks like a depression at least now, if not stan.
Haven't looked at 20 yet though...

I got a question also: What happens if both of these depressions become TS' at the same time??
Will the one that developed first be stan?


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: development-impaired [Re: weatherwatcher999]
      #57565 - Sat Oct 01 2005 10:24 PM

Officially, the one that forms first will get Stan - but what's more likely is that they'd give it to the one most likely to impact land first

Or else there's the ever-popular coin toss...


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: development-impaired [Re: tpratch]
      #57566 - Sat Oct 01 2005 10:41 PM

no stan tonight... in either system... but TD20 could become stan in next 12hrs or so...i think.. most likely in 5am in morning... will have stan

11pm
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 01 2005 10:42 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: development-impaired [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57568 - Sun Oct 02 2005 12:26 AM

they aren't going to upgrade 20 without strong evidence. there's radar coverage from cancun, the buoy, and whatever other recon they can get out there. the NHC will call it conservatively; for that reason i don't expect it to be upgraded before landfall... unless there's a 34kt wind or something suggestive of it, or maybe just a really sharpened satellite appearance.
out in the east atlantic 19 has a better look to it than earlier, but i agree with their keeping it a depression. the low level turning you can see in the exposed part of the cloud field isn't all that impressive. long term prog isn't a great one for this system as shear and cooler SSTs should start killing it in a few days if the shear doesn't kill it outright or keep it in check in the short term. it may pull a lee and briefly make storm status, but it'll only amount to a statistic.
anyhow, 20 will be entering the BOC and all those comments about not being sure where it goes in a few days are well-founded. a lot of globals want to shove it into mexico by default, but the steering ridge that is building to the north right now may be gone by the time the storm is nearing mexico. some of the guidance stalls it and pushes it back to the east or northeast later in the coming week. there is also the issue of what else may be forming over there.. some of the globals suggest another system will try to develop in its wake by the middle of the week. on top of all that there's still a shot at something trying to form off the east coast. it wouldn't make sense for all of this to happen, so some variation of the mentioned events should take place. whether 20 goes into mexico or not, there's a general consensus on a system or wannabe system being centered somewhere between the yucatan channel and the outer banks by later next week.
still interested in the hybrid system near 25/35. models still tracking it far to the west. that's another statistic if anything comes of it.
expect weirdness as october is usually the month for such things.
HF 0426z02october


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: development-impaired [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57570 - Sun Oct 02 2005 01:24 AM

recon....

URNT11 KNHC 020435
97779 04254 10207 86000 15300 11032 16169 /2499
RMK AF304 0320A CYCLONE OB 05

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: development-impaired [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57571 - Sun Oct 02 2005 01:33 AM

well it's been an amazing season... for RAINEX as of October 1st: RAINEX has concluded its field operations)
i read alot of amazing stuff the last two months and i can only think there is more data to go through....visual too

Rainex 2005

i think some of you would like this web page.... Rita summary Day 3 ( of course this is when she was a cat 5)
Rita Day 3

**Check out Figure 11*** notice the "eyewalls"

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: development-impaired [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57572 - Sun Oct 02 2005 02:26 AM

well....


URNT12 KNHC 020619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/05:47:10Z
B. 19 deg 33 min N
087 deg 14 min W
C. 850 mb 1463 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 107 deg 039 kt
G. 045 deg 033 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 18 C/ 1525 m
J. 17 C/ 1523 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF304 0320A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 39 KT N QUAD 04:43:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 45 / 33NM
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: development-impaired [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57573 - Sun Oct 02 2005 02:34 AM

almost stan.... but not yet

URNT14 KNHC 020627
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01206 10861 12498 11616 12032
02204 20863 22495 21715 12029
03203 30865 32491 31616 12028
04201 40867 42484 41716 11032
05200 50870 52476 51717 12027
06197 60871 62467 61717 15028
MF199 M0868 MF039 max flight level winds: inbound 39kts
OBS 01 AT 04:26:50Z
OBS 06 AT 05:41:50Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01193 10873 12463 11616 23012
02191 20873 22470 21616 24016
03188 30873 32475 31816 24014
04185 40873 42478 41717 24015
05183 50873 52481 51717 24018
06180 60872 62480 61717 25025
MF181 M0871 MF040 max flight level winds: outbound 40kts
OBS 01 AT 05:52:50Z
OBS 06 AT 06:16:40Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
AF304 0320A CYCLONE OB 09

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3512
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: development-impaired [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57574 - Sun Oct 02 2005 02:42 AM

AF304 0320A CYCLONE
0621z 18.1N 087.0W 207deg at 051kts ,max wind052kts.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: development-impaired [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57575 - Sun Oct 02 2005 02:50 AM

wow.... Hank looks to be right...there could be a system somewhere between cancun and cape hattera's....... the CMC 2005100200 run.... wants to bring something out of the bahama's, kinda like were Rita came from, and bring it across southern Fl and keep it in eastern GOM.... this seems interesting to me...... wouldn't expect anything to get too far west in GOM... with the next front approaching the se later this week.....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: development-impaired [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57576 - Sun Oct 02 2005 02:59 AM

this is kinda weird... at the end of this run... look at the Fine Mesh Grid on the right.... GFDL twenty20l 2005100200

what's that north of cancun

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Rubén
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Mérida, Yucatán, México
Re: development-impaired [Re: danielw]
      #57577 - Sun Oct 02 2005 03:02 AM

That's 51 knts its at fly level? then at surface 46 knts? so Stan on board?

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Rubén
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Mérida, Yucatán, México
Re: development-impaired [Re: Rubén]
      #57578 - Sun Oct 02 2005 03:30 AM

yes, Marine oficial...Stan on my way!!!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 440
Loc: Georgia Tech
Stan 19 and the models [Re: Rubén]
      #57579 - Sun Oct 02 2005 04:35 AM

Well. NHC has Tropical Storm Stan on their main page as well, so if there was any lingering doubt... heh

19 is still firing up some fairly serious convection only to have it blasted away. so, it may, or may not, get to tropical storm strength.

Now, on to the question of the day.... The models are giving some crazy signals on the 00Zulu runs:

the CMC is bringing up a pretty strong storm in about 72 hours just off of tampa and driving it up the east coast.

GFDL is looping Stan around and bringing it up the *East* side of the Yucatan after abou 120 hours

GFDL is also brining 19 up to about 30N then looping it back down to the south at the end of the period. (while strengthening it to a hurricane...

GFS weakens Stan and 19, but then creates 2 spurious lows trekking across the atlantic.

meanwhile the MM5FSU stalls Stan in the BOC and strengthens it somewhat, and then has a weak feature near the islands in 5 days.

NOGAPS kills 19 off, and then there's a broad area of low pressure in the Gulf, possibly stalling Stan out, possibly something else entirely.

and finally UKM creates a low pressure near the Yucatan in about 4 days, After running Stan ashore.

So what in the world does it mean? Well, it looks like the models think something is going to happen in the Eastern Gulf in the next few days, as far as what the trigger will be, I have no clue right now, but most of the models see something there. Meanwhile 19 has a small window to become Tammy. But I think the NHC will hold off upgrading it unless there is very strong evidence to indicate it's a tropical Storm (after all, we now have only 3 names left, and the least thing we need are jokes about Beta Decay and Hurricane Delta changing, And I'm so not sticking around for Omega

So, I have no idea what's going to happen, but it seems like we have at least one more item that's going to be in the next few days.... that is if the models are picking up on something real and not just a feedback issue or some other spurious data...

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Stan 19 and the models [Re: Bloodstar]
      #57580 - Sun Oct 02 2005 05:30 AM

Well Stan looks to be quite well organised, but really quite a broad system. This could work in its favor as it crosses the Yucatan in that for a large part of the time at least some part of its circulation should be over water - either the Caribbean or the GOM. But at the same time, friction could act to tighten up the circulation, so it is a bit of a two way split. It wouldnt be at all surprising to see a new centre develop over the GOM as the circulation approaches, especially if the larger circulation does not tighten up too much. Still, at the moment, rain will be the major problem... but once over the GOM it could become quite a strong system, especially if it stalls out as some models are now hinting at...

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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