Saturday 11AM Update
The tropical disturbance in the northwest Caribbean has finally become organized enough to be classified as TD 20. Recon will be in the depression later today, while tropical storm warnings are now up for a portion of the Yucutan. Northern Mexico and southern Texas are under the gun in 3-4 days from this one. Meanwhile, TD 19 continues to try to become better organized and has a brief window of opportunity to become a tropical storm. It should remain out at sea.
TD 20
Friday PM Update
A tropical disturbance to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become the season's 19th tropical depression. Forecast motion is generally to the north-northwest over the next five days, keeping this one well out to sea. Interesting, it is the furthest east developing system thus far this season.
TD 19
Elsewhere, the disturbance in the NW Caribbean is only slightly better organized than yesterday, the makings of a system about three days down the line to the NE of the Bahamas are coming together along 60W, and a hybrid-type system appears to be forming near 25N/25W. While there is nothing classified out there to track right now, there are 4 areas of active interest for potential development over the next 5 days. Quite possible 2 or 3 of these could develop, so stay tuned.
Original Update
The area talked about earlier in the week is still disorganized but has a chance to develop over the next few days. The Hurricane Hunters are en route to the disturbance this morning and afternoon. It's still moving generally westward, and if it were to develop, it would likely affect the Yucatan area and then enter the Southwestern Gulf, most likely continuing on to mainland Mexico.
Chances for tropical development of the wave 99L in the Western Caribbean in the next two days.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------*------------]
There is another area just off the coast of Louisiana, but that is even less likely to form.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance off the coast of Louisiana.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*--------------------]
Beyond that, another long clump of storms from Northeast Cuba to north of the Bahamas, but isn't organized enough to even consider at the moment, but we'll watch it over the next several days as well as another wave east of the Leeward Islands that has almost no chance of development right now.
So, nothing immediate, but plenty to watch.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
TD 19
TD 20
Animated model plot of TD 20
Edited by Clark (Sat Oct 01 2005 11:01 AM)
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