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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4365
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida
      #61554 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:35 PM

5PM Update
Hurricane Watches are up from Longboat key southward on the west coast of Florida and from Titusville southward along the east coast of Florida. This means hurricane conditions may be felt in those areas within 36-48 hours. Warnings may be issued for portions of the watch area tomorrow as Wilma approaches. Wilma is nearly offshore of the Yucatan now.

Wilma is forecast to be a category 2 or 3 hurricane when it makes landfall on the western coast of Florida, and will be moving very rapidly, so that there won't be much time for it to weaken all that much before reaching the east coast. The timing is still during the day on Monday. The forecast track was shifted a bit to the north. But remains mostly the same as before. Affects will be felt thoughout the watch area.

Tropical Storm Watches are up for points north of the hurricane watch area.

Again,most of the Florida Peninsula will feel some effects from Wilma


Original Update
Tropical Storm Alpha has formed. Breaking the record number of tropcial storms in a season set this year and in 1933, and for the first time exhausting the list of names for the season. It is expected to make landfall over Hispaniola. The 5PM advisory will reflect this.



Wilma is still drifting slowly over the Yucatan, continuing to weaken. It still has not cleared the peninsula. It has a small chance to gain strength again when it gets into the Gulf, so the Category 1-3 range for landfall later remains the most likely. Wilma has been undergoing a large eyewall replacement cycle, so the new eye is actually partially over water. The remains of the old eye still fill the center.



No change on timing, and track.

More to come later in the day.

Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion
Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.


(full size)
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.


Event Related Links

Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: Radar hasn't sent a new image since 7:30 it will still continue to check, but the radar may be down due to Wilma)

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar


Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.


Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

Tropical Storm Alpha

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#25 - Static Image
cmss page


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: MikeC]
      #61568 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:53 PM

NRL is reporting that Tropical Storm Alpha has formed:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: MikeC]
      #61574 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:55 PM

Looking at the latest visibles, Wilma appears to be nearing the NE tip of the Yucatan, and is moving slightly faster now, though still very slow to the NNE. Rain bands are beginning to strengthen & build to the E and NE again, and I would not be surprised to see her strenghten to a low end Cat 3 again during the next 24 hours before she begins a weakening trend towards the Florida SW coast.
Think the NHC forecast is right on track with a Naples-Ft Myers area hit and being at a high end Cat 1 or low end CAT 2 at landfall IMHO.
Hope everyone in S. Fla is taking this seriously as I think there will be a large area of tropical force winds with Hurricane gusts in addition to the direct path area with sustained CAT 1 or 2 winds.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #61576 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:58 PM

Cross-posting the graphic:

Will likely do a heading update when the next hours' radar image goes live.


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HURRICANE EYE
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 10
Loc: ORLANDO, FLORIDA
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: MikeC]
      #61577 - Sat Oct 22 2005 03:59 PM

I beleive that her outer eyewall has partially been over water this entire time, this is why her structure has been intact, and that the ERC is halfway done by the colapsing of the inner eye wall seen on the microwave loop someone on here posted yesterday, sorry dont know how to post a url.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #61578 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:00 PM

Looking at some of the 18Z models on Accuweather[pay area], Most of the tropical suite shifted north for that run. MLB was hinting at at an error being to the north. Will be intersting to see what comes out of NHC at 5:00. All of the forecast paths had been running right through the middle of these models. Suspect there will be a slight forecast shift north. Not large. Probably parrellel to current track; but shift to north side of the Big O instead of south.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sat Oct 22 2005 04:02 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Rasvar]
      #61581 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:08 PM

Not sure if this got posted in the old thread, but here is the latest recon (about 50 minutes old). According to it, the ERC has finished and it is just a matter of clearing out the remnants of the old eyewall. 75NM eye...and just 2 days ago we had a 4NM eye...wow.

You can also see the 75NM eyewall has a large portion of it over water: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks

832
URNT12 KNHC 221942Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1920Z
B. 21 DEG 20 MIN N
87 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2725 MA
D. 85
E. 135 DEG 35 NM
F. 221 DEG 81 KT
G. 136 DEG 51 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3060 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C75
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A Wilma OB 08
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 1739Z
REMNENTS OF INNER EYEWALL ON RADAR.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Oct 22 2005 04:11 PM)


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Random Chaos]
      #61582 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:12 PM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Weather+Outlook

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed

Edited by Tazmanian93 (Sat Oct 22 2005 04:44 PM)


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Rasvar]
      #61585 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:14 PM

I actually made a comment to Colleen last night or maybe this am, who can remember, that it appeared that ever ever so SLIGHTLY they were shifting slightly N. Of course there could be more

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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KikiFla
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: MikeC]
      #61586 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:16 PM

Now that we have Tropical Storm Alpha formed..... and with Hurricane Wilma in the near vicinty around the same time, does anyone have any idea how these 2 storms will interact with each other once they get in the Atlantic near the Bahamas????

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Random Chaos]
      #61587 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:17 PM

Quote:

Not sure if this got posted in the old thread, but here is the latest recon (about 50 minutes old). According to it, the ERC has finished and it is just a matter of clearing out the remnants of the old eyewall. 75NM eye...and just 2 days ago we had a 4NM eye...wow.





957 MB pressure after having been on land for several hours... impressive. Definately not as weak as it could have gotten.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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laureg
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 22
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Random Chaos]
      #61588 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:19 PM

I have what I think is a great question...what if...next year we run through all of the names again (heaven forbid); do we start at Alpha again? What if we want to refer to the Alpha of 2005, 2006, 2007 and so on?

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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #61589 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:19 PM

watching TWC right now .. and they havent called TD25 alpha yet strange i figured they would be first on it b/c they are doing things live today .. im in clearwater .. and weather its a lil south or a lil north from the projected path ... we are gunna have nasty weather monday with the cold front slamming into this strom .. @ noon on news channel 8 thier VIPIR system was showing heavy winds and rain .. all along the i-4 corider

Edited by D3m3NT3DVoRT3X (Sat Oct 22 2005 04:20 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: KikiFla]
      #61590 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:19 PM

Quote:

Now that we have Tropical Storm Alpha formed..... and with Hurricane Wilma in the near vicinty around the same time, does anyone have any idea how these 2 storms will interact with each other once they get in the Atlantic near the Bahamas????




GFDL 12Z model run on 25L shows Wilma eventually absorbing Alpha:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
The Front [Re: KikiFla]
      #61591 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:21 PM

[Sorry, I posted this after the thread switched, so here it is again just in case:]

Does anyone have a good site that provides real time information on where the front really is? The only way I've been able to really track it is by the weather station buoy data, but there has got to be an easier way to see this data. I just don't think that the NWS graphic front line on the GOES loops is completely up to date. From looking once again at the buoy data versus their graphic, it appears that the front is farther north than their graphic shows.

I've looked at the WV loop and it gives me a feel for its location; but unlike the METS who can interpret that kind of stuff, I'm an architect so I need fancy graphics to look at!


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komi
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Random Chaos]
      #61594 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:25 PM

Is on the way to FLA now .. almoust offshore:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Hurricane Force gust in Northern Lake County [Re: Geoff]
      #61595 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:26 PM

Just to give us an idea of how big this storm is look at Mondays forecast for Northern Lake County. Not quite what people are expecting up here

Monday...Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms. Strong winds. Rain May be heavy at Times. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 45 to 50 mph with gusts to around 75 mph becoming north 35 to 45 mph with gusts to around 65 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: The Front [Re: Geoff]
      #61596 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:27 PM

I do not know of any better?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129914741763.716.3

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
Re: Hurricane Force gust in Northern Lake County [Re: Jamiewx]
      #61597 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:29 PM

please post a link rather than pasting 3 pages of content please. It's good info, but inordinately long. Thanks -Tom

Edited by tpratch (Sat Oct 22 2005 04:34 PM)


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TinaB
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #61598 - Sat Oct 22 2005 04:29 PM

Boy, Accuweather sure has changed it's forecast path!! This morning they were almost in agreeance with TWC but now they have moved the center of their forecast track WAY north from earlier. FWIW, I never give much attention the TWC and Accuweather...prefer to stick with NHC, TYVM

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