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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes
      #63384 - Sun Oct 30 2005 09:29 AM

Monday 10PM Update
The tropical wave (Invest 92L) that was south of Puerto Rico this morning has moved rapidly west northwest during the day and has been drawn into the northern circulation of an upper level low currently in the central Caribbean Sea south of Haiti. The opportunity for development has decreased significantly as the tropics begin to transform into a wintertime pattern. Activity is finally quieting down.

Monday 11AM Update
Tropical Depression Beta has dissipated over extreme southwestern Honduras, while Invest 92L is still an active wave, now well south of Puerto Rico in the western Caribbean Sea. Most model runs have not been updated on 92L in quite some time - but they probably should be. The wave continues to move westward through the Caribbean Sea and convection is again on the increase.

Original Post
Hurricane Beta made landfall shortly after 30/12Z along the east central coast of Nicaragua as a Category II hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105mph. Beta was a small but powerful hurricane with a small eye - it did reach Category III during the night, but weakened just prior to landfall. Current movement is to the southwest at about 10mph and rapid weakening is expected over the high terrain of Nicaragua. A remnant low could emerge into the Pacific off the west central Nicaraguan coast as Beta continues on a southwest to westsouthwest course over the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding likely over Nicaragua and Honduras. Landfall was near 12.9N 83.6W.

Active stationary wave over Jamaica with a weak circulation over western Jamaica should bring more heavy rainfall to that country. The wave exists in an area of moderate wind shear so future development seems unlikely.

Active tropical wave near 15.5N 56W at 30/12Z (Invest 92L) moving to the west and west northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands. The wave will be moving into an area of lighter shear and has potential for additional development over the next 2 or 3 days. The next name on the list is 'Gamma'.

The zonal jet has extended southward to 23N thanks to the anticipated development of a strong Mississippi Valley upper trough in a couple of days. This set-up should offer some near term protection to the U.S. - keeping any future systems offshore and out to sea. Note that the westerlies over the central Gulf of Mexico are stronger than the westerlies over central Hudson Bay.

23 Named Storms (and still counting)
13 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes
3 Cat V's

Probably a 'once in a century' type of season!
ED


Event Related links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Beta

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Beta - Static Image
cimss Beta Page

92L

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 31 2005 10:15 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63387 - Sun Oct 30 2005 12:23 PM

Good morning, all...yes after staying up until 3am (which could be considered 4am without the time change), I am just getting up.

Looked only at the wv loop so far, but what a horrfying situation for the small fishing villages of Nicaragua. Not surprised that the small core which was very strong and very well organized is taking some time to dissipate. To note:many did not evac from those isolated fishing villages, and with the ridge driving it SSW what remains of the core is still running down the coastline. Secondly, it appears that Honduras got quite a bit of rainfall as well...something that should have been given more emphasis in the advis since the movement had gone so far to the north, but which was dropped in the last couple advis before landfall.

Afraid NHC did not do too well with this one (nor did any of us).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63388 - Sun Oct 30 2005 12:26 PM

And I thought 2004 was a once in a century season!

Indeed, it has been a very active season and one apparently keyed into the MDO (Multi-Decadal Oscillation) of SSTs in the Atlantic... However, there are and were other factors in play. Less was the sub-Saharan SOIl moisture/rain fall, usually statistically correlated with a very active Cape Verdi season...

This year's phenomenal activity appears to have been more keyed into the SOI (Southern Oscillation index); where having that in concert with multi-seasonal warm SST anomaly in the Atlantic Basin gave circumstances this season a tremendous boost! There was very much less than the usual amount of shearing westerlies at mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, in the means, because the tropical Pacific SSTs were not as condusive as they could have been, in creating an excited westerly component over the SW Atlantic Basin. To the lay person, this may seem odd...that the SSTs of the tropical Pacific could exert and influence in the westerlies at low-latitudes over the Caribbean and adjacent areas, but such is the way of the atmosphere and the reasons are quite complex having to do with terrestrial physics.

Just for those who do not know: The MDO tends to be just that, "multi-decadal"....which, is code for happening over extended periods. The other key is "oscillation".....and, if you look back at the climatology of SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, indeed, a periodicity of roughtly 25 years (that's rough) materializes in the data... It is no coincidence (it is currently theorized) that in over a 100 years worth of data, a flux in TC frequency coincides rather nicely with these warm periods. During such warmer departures from norm...should the other indices be also favorable, then POW! I am not honestly that certain what the sub-Saharan rain index was leading into this season but a vague memory of a report issued early on suggested it was below normal... That would have been a negative factor for contemporary thinking on the matter, but, since these other positives were so overwhelming, the rest was born. (Sub-Saharan rains are statistically correlated to stronger and more frequent tropical wave activity passing from Africa to the tropical/sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean).

This is all important to note because we are still embedded in the postive period of the MDO; meaning, more likely than not, positive Atlantic Basin SSTs will again be registerable in earnest, probably toward the end of next spring. All this activity did put a slight dent in the heat content, but when this season inevitably dies down there will definitely be enough vestigial warmth to ring off next summer with a higher than normal launching pad. SSTs will be quite hot, quite early, just as they were this season. So...from a purely cursory point of view, the table will be set for next season to be a big one!

The question: Who shows for dinner?? Will the SOI flip phases supporting a warm SST in the East Pacific, which would be a heavily weighted negative? Will sub-Saharan rains be greater, which would be supportive of stronger waves emerging off the west African Coast for perhaps a better expression of the "Cape Verde" season?? In other words, next season's frequency will depend most likely on these and other indices (not mention here for there relative smaller significance) that current scientific understanding only vaguely at best can predict their their modalities. The MDO is the most predominant and that is why it is of higher confidence... (We haven't even included Global Warming in this discussion - too argumentative for now... )

Sufficed to say, however, with warmer than normal SSTs persisting next year (the favored state), we are in the very least probablistically on the higher than normal amount of activity aspect of the curve. Trust me: if the SOI is in LaNina and the SSTs remain warmer than normal - odds would favor much above normal. Time will tell...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 30 2005 12:31 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63390 - Sun Oct 30 2005 01:17 PM

Ed -- eight major hurricanes, not seven (Beta the eigth).

Tip -- the season is still active. I definitely want to revisit your discussion...in December.


update -- was the NHC wrong? I haven't counted. From the 4am disc:

BETA IS THE EIGHTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON...

Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, Wilma, Beta...makes seven, not eight.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 30 2005 04:00 PM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: Margie]
      #63391 - Sun Oct 30 2005 02:38 PM

I don't care how active the rest of the season is, just as long as the activity stays away from Fla and the rest of the US! I am wondering when El Nino will flare up again. When ever he is around the tropics are pretty quiet.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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the young weatherman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Toronto, ON, Canada
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: damejune2]
      #63392 - Sun Oct 30 2005 02:45 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
Bow down to the The youngest Meoteorologist on Earth!!!!!!! MauHaHa!
You wanna see my lastest forecast for severe weather?
CLick Here


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ENSO [Re: the young weatherman]
      #63394 - Sun Oct 30 2005 04:20 PM

if el nino was coming on it would have started in the summer.. just about always does. moot point that there's not going to be one this year. SOI, which is an indicator that leads ENSO has been strongly positive all october... it's just switching, but it would be camping negative for weeks on end in negative territory were the forcing for ocean warming the pacific in place. we've been en neutral to weak ENSO warm (moderate el nino in 2002, neutral in 2003, weak el nino in 2004, neutral in 2005). if anything we're due for la nina to come back around. note that even with a weak el nino circulation in 2004, we still had a very active season with multiple major hurricanes making landfall in the u.s. ENSO has to be quite strong to really affect the activity in the atlantic, especially since the AMO is cranking and ocean temperatures have been and should stay consistently above normal in much of the basin.
HF 2120z30october


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 458
Loc: Georgia Tech
92L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63400 - Sun Oct 30 2005 05:54 PM

you know, for an unfavorable environment, it looks pretty nice, but of course, the caveat, give it another 6 - 12 hours to see if it still looks nice. I keep thinking I see a hint of circulation but, I'm not really sure, and the convection seems to be dying anyway, so... probably a no go.

I still think we have a shot to get to Delta or Epsilon, as there are still opportunites and time in the carribean, as well as the oddball hybrid storms to develop.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020!

TD/TS/H/M
29/28/12/05
18/17/7/04


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
The "Ls" [Re: Bloodstar]
      #63401 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:22 PM

91L-Vortice and isolated convection is visible in the WV loops through 0015Z. Located just north of the ABC Islands in the South Central Caribbean. 91L appears to have escaped being drawn into Beta's Circulation.

92L-Drifting slowly toward the W-NW. Low level circulation/ inflow visible on the last few frames of the Visible Satellite shots. Moderate convection, located near the center of the cloud mass, is decreasing somewhat at this time.
Shear appears to be influencing any further development at this time. Westward moving air mass located to the East of 92L appears to be pushing 92L toward the NNW. Just south of the convection, winds are from the SW. Possibly due to circulation from the backside of 91L.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 30 2005 08:24 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: The "Ls" [Re: danielw]
      #63402 - Sun Oct 30 2005 08:33 PM

Am I missing something seems 91L was dropped over 24 hours ago??

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: The "Ls" [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63405 - Sun Oct 30 2005 09:45 PM

No Sir. I am using the Tropical Weather Discussion, areas. I didn't check the Navy site. So I'm missing up to date information.
I strictly was going by the satellite photos and I double checked my post after the 7 PM Discussion was transmitted.
Remnants of 91L, the vortice is still visible, with associated convection. I was counting on it being pulled into Beta's circulation. That hasn't happened.
Just a friendly heads up that the circulation still exists. It was generating thunderstorms early on Sunday morning over the ABC Islands.

I've learned over the 2004-2005 Hurricane Season to:
"Never say Never, when dealing with the Weather".

I'm sure that you probably have a similar saying after so many years at Sea.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
I am back from Wilma [Re: danielw]
      #63409 - Mon Oct 31 2005 08:43 AM

Hi All,

I'm back after Wilma. I have plenty of stories, pictures, and video to share. For now, I wanted to post the awesome data I collected during the storm from my home weather station. I am NWS Storm Spotter number 41 in Palm Beach County.

Here are my storm statistics:

Front Eyewall:
9:03 a.m.
Wind SSE
Sustained wind 77 mph
Gust to 103 mph

Back Eyewall:
11:54 a.m.
Wind W/WNW
Sustained wind 90 mph
Gust to 118 mph

Lowest Pressure 28.15" / 953 mb at 9:58 a.m.

Total Rainfall 1.54"

Of interest, I also show a temperature and dew point drop of 8 degrees in the 30 minutes prior to the strongest winds at 11:54 a.m. I have a Davis weather station that actually survived the storm, but had lots of damage to my home, such as roof, fence, screen enclosure, satellite dish, trees, etc. My front door even blew in at the height of the storm.

You can view my Wilma data and graphs at the following web site:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstati...4&year=2005

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #63410 - Mon Oct 31 2005 01:08 PM

I can't find anything about Nicaragua on the online news at all, about how they fared after Beta. Did anyone read or hear anything?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: Margie]
      #63411 - Mon Oct 31 2005 04:15 PM

92L is looking like its got some good convection and thats been going on all day. I wonder if they will change anything in the next TWO. Anybody wish to comment on 92L?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 208
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63412 - Mon Oct 31 2005 04:23 PM

There's no NHC track on sketobites model page but lets hope it doesn't stick with the 98e model. NHC has been pretty darn good this year(other than Beta that is).

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: Psyber]
      #63414 - Mon Oct 31 2005 04:48 PM

I checked the South Florida Water District; they have nothing on 92L either. Let's hope Dr. Gray is right and there won't be anything in November.

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: Margie]
      #63415 - Mon Oct 31 2005 06:59 PM

Well, here is a suggestion, although unless you can speak spanish it won't do you a whole lot of good. Tune your cable to the Univision (Spanish) channel. They have pictures and video of the areas effected by Beta. I saw some footage this morning. Like i said, it's in spanish so it won't do you a lot of good unless you can understand it, yet you can at least see some video.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63416 - Mon Oct 31 2005 07:02 PM

The 5pm discussion says that upper level winds are not favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Usually at the end of that they put, "at this time", or "the next few days". This discussion said formation wasn't expected because of upper level winds. Maybe there isn't any updates, like on Skeetobite's site, because 92L is not going to do anything?!

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: Margie]
      #63417 - Mon Oct 31 2005 07:23 PM

Try this link:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1267512

Navy Mil have dropped 92L.

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: Margie]
      #63418 - Mon Oct 31 2005 07:30 PM

Quote:

Ed -- eight major hurricanes, not seven (Beta the eigth).





One should check before they make a statement Ed is correct. ((7)))

Dave


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