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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4366
Loc: Orlando, FL
November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean
      #63456 - Fri Nov 04 2005 07:12 AM

It's November, the last and usually a quiet month of the Hurricane Season. This year, even as record breaking as it has been, seems no different in this respect.

In November, you usually look toward the Caribbean for late season storms, and right now there is a wave in the southwestern Caribbean that is indeed being watched.



This wave seems to be getting a little better organized, but still has quite a ways to go before depression status, so it may never make that since it is relatively close to land, and conditions are only marginial for development. But still we will be watching it.

Outside of that, it is very quiet in the Tropics, thankfully.

Chances for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean in the next two days:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]





Event Related links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #63458 - Fri Nov 04 2005 08:35 AM

As we enter the last month, I want to take a moment to publically thank the Mods and the experts for all of the work they have done on the board during a very busy season. Although at times, tempers and opinions have been at the very edge of civility, we have been able to depend on this board for accurate and thoughtful insights into current and forcasted conditions. I am by no means an "Expert" but I have learned a tremendous ammount of new info over the last 2 years and this board has been the major contributor. Her's hoping that the season is finally over and that all who post and read here have a safe and blessed holiday season.

Thanks ALL


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Wingman51]
      #63459 - Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM

Well said; couldn't agree more. The Mods improved the access to data and the contributions by all were informative, even if not accurate or sometimes "off the wall". Great to monitor and occasionally participate...
Will continue to do so as long as there is something to watch.

--------------------
doug


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Wingman51]
      #63460 - Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM

As of this morning, conditions have become very much more favorable for development in the SW Carib...which is not to say that anything will develop. This is not reflected in the wording of the 1130 TWO, which does at least acknowledge the possibility.

Upper level anti-cyclonic motion is combined with three good possible outflow channels, low shear, and increasing vorticity, above the area of disturbed weather from the tropical wave.

Regardless, the continuing heavy rains are causing a huge problem for the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, still dealing with the effects of flooding from Beta.

* * * * *

Well more knowledgeable folks than myself disagree...from the aft TWD:

LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS DON'T APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

Is this because of all the dry air moving in strongly from the eastern Carib (can be seen on the floater)?

* * * * *

Mid-aft...please tell me I am seeing things. Looks like a LLC at about 12N between 80-82W, no assoc convection.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Fri Nov 04 2005 03:47 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Margie]
      #63463 - Sat Nov 05 2005 05:25 AM

While I agree that the SW Caribbean looks busy. NHC/ TPC aren't calling for any development. As of the 1030PM EST TWO, and the 105AM EST TWD.

Here's the 0945Z image from the SW Caribbean.
Thin cirrus outflow is seen from the North through the East. Low level circulation appears to be nearly onshore at the Nicaragua/ Costa Rican Border.


Edited by danielw (Sat Nov 05 2005 05:37 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #63465 - Sat Nov 05 2005 10:08 AM

Morning...I just logged on and noticed that myself (it can be seen very well until the transition to daylight)...no assoc convection at all, possibly not even assoc with much of a lower pressure, but a clearly-defined LLC, spinning away. This is kind of interesting to me; I didn't realize that could exist alone for such a long time without being a precursor of a TC forming.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Margie]
      #63470 - Sun Nov 06 2005 04:29 PM

ALL LOOKS TO BE QUITE.... weird how TODAY appears to be the deadliest tornado outbreak this season (2005).... the us almost got threw a year with out too many deadly tornadoes....

back to topic... found this the other day.... this is from Rita.... WOW towers up to 18km.... pretty high! water below was around 33C

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/135135main_TRMM_Hurricane_RitaSept30.jpg
more HOT TOWERS!
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/rita_hot_towers.html


Rita page from nasa:
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/h2005_rita.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63471 - Sun Nov 06 2005 06:43 PM

Thanks for sharing. I keep a record of all the storms but of course I am most interested in Rita.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63473 - Mon Nov 07 2005 01:22 AM

some stuff on Wilma

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136650main_Wilma_trmm_ppt_lg.jpg

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Wilam Article [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63474 - Mon Nov 07 2005 09:14 AM

The Palm Beach Post has an interesting article on Wilma's strength today. It's a quick interesting read.

www.palmbeachpost.com


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Wilam Article [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63475 - Mon Nov 07 2005 09:31 AM

Saw an interview with Max Mayfield Friday.He said the reports that Wilma being a cat 1 are wrong,and they did not come from the NHC.He goes on to say Wilma was a cat 3 storm.I will take Max's word on this one.The house next to me has a weather station and recorded a peak gust of 137mph.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Wilma Article [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #63476 - Mon Nov 07 2005 09:45 AM

I'd never go against Max Mayfield. I agree, I saw winds of 118 mph in my area. The only thing funny was that it was a dry storm. My pool need water before the storm, but I obviously didn't fill it. After the storm, the pool was just about at the right level, which means I got an inch of rain.

We got more rain from last week's thunderstorms.



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Article [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63477 - Mon Nov 07 2005 12:34 PM

The Category rating is linked to the highest one-minute sustained winds that are found somewhere in the storm...this does not mean that the entire area that the storm passed over experienced these highest sustained-wind conditions. Also, wind gusts do not count towards the Category rating. It is very possible to receive a high gust even with a Cat 1 storm.

The newspaper article is entirely consistent with the Cat 3 rating, acknowledging, essentially, that somewhere possibly in the everglades there was a small area on the coast that did experience sustained Cat 3 winds, but also entirely correct in stating that no instruments in any of the areas of SFL recorded anything but Cat 1 sust winds, and if Cat 2 sust winds were experienced, it was likely over a very small area of SFL.

Note that with Dennis there was only one instrument that recorded one-minute sust winds supporting Dennis's Cat rating at landfall, and that there were some places where Dennis's strongest winds did not drop down to ground level, so that many places did not experience high winds with Dennis, but nevertheless the Cat rating was valid.

Now I was very put out with the AOML wind analysis for Katrina and even posted the same somewhere else on the board...haven't even had time to go correct the gross error I made in the post, which was some of the diagrams used mph and some kts. Now even with that adjustment, the wind gusts measured by NWS stations for Katrina do seem to indicate sustained windspeeds a little higher than the AOML model, but over time I have changed my mind and believe that the model is much closer to truth than I believed at first. My main disagreement with the model is that I believe right on the coast the higher winds that are just offshore are experienced and that the friction with land builds up over the first say 1/2 mile to 1 1/2 mile inland. The feedback I had received about extreme wind damage was actually very close to the coast, much closer than I had realized at first, less than a 1/2 mile from the coast.

So overall I do not have a problem with the AOML model except it may be a little low, but not a whole lot, certainly not an entire Cat rating.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Wilma Article [Re: Margie]
      #63480 - Mon Nov 07 2005 04:41 PM

I believe that a sustained wind at 101mph (or was it 104?) was measured at one of those key stations around the Biscayne Bay.. a bit away from the center. AOML has been talking about downing Katrina to a 3 based on some measurements taken as it crossed the Mississippi Delta. That might irk some people as to the value of such adjustments, when the central pressure and surge were consistent with a stronger system. Of course, the recon at the time is the best gauge of what the winds were.
HF 2142z07november


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Article [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63481 - Mon Nov 07 2005 05:54 PM

Well if Cat level is going to be based solely on max sust windspeeed, then they probably have a good shot, especially since their model uses a very generous assumption about friction with land reducing windspeed, right on the coast, and since most all the wind measurement devices that could refute the model output broke or were downed by surge before the max winds could be recorded.

I guess this then brings into question the validity of the Cat scale if it is just going to be tied to windspeed, when pressure and surge are also possible methods of assessing intensity. Now what happens in the case that flt lvl winds do not extrapolate down to surface level as expected (i.e, dropsondes show that surface level winds are not as high as could be expected, given flt lvl windspeeds).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Wilma Article [Re: Margie]
      #63482 - Mon Nov 07 2005 06:45 PM

A long time ago I made a thread in the hurricane ask/tell section attempting to invalidate the Saffir Simpson scale. I find this debate really interesting. Pressure is the only thing we can realistically measure, but the variability inherent between it and wind speed is painfully large.

It becomes even more perplexing when you consider that the categories are based on what damage will occur in the event the storm makes landfall. Only problem is, depending on where the storm hits, this damage will vary greatly! For example, my neighborhood could probably survive a nuclear bomb blast in light of our rigorous building codes and recent ‘cleansing’ per hurricane Charley. Likewise, since my home didn’t suffer ‘catastrophic damage’ with Andrew, does that mean that I did not experience a category 4/5 (or whatever they are calling him these days)?



In the end though, all this quibbling just makes me appreciate those vintage NW pacific monsters even more.

Just to throw something loosely related out there… I sorta think that Emily may have briefly been a ‘minimal’ category five for a few hours, which if true would make this season’s record of such storms infact four… not three.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Mon Nov 07 2005 06:54 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Wilma Article [Re: Lysis]
      #63485 - Mon Nov 07 2005 10:46 PM

Quote:

I sorta think that Emily may have briefly been a ‘minimal’ category five for a few hours, which if true would make this season’s record of such storms infact four… not three.




That was documented by the NHC discussion:

"5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z..."

But it was inbetween advisories and they did not officially change Emily to Cat 5.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
looking out [Re: Margie]
      #63486 - Tue Nov 08 2005 01:41 AM

in about a week a couple of the models are picking up on some potential activity in the caribbean. the strongly zonal pattern, with rather universal westerlies in the atlantic right now should kink up some, as a strong sharp trough passing off the east coast at the end of the week should modify the currently strong zonal flow.
cmc is showing a frontal-tail low near the ne caribbean around the weekend, while GFS sees an upper ridge with a slowed low level easterly jet in the western caribbean in a week to 10 days. at this point just watching for persistence in runs, as they're far out. pattern wouldn't support more than caribbean impact from either feature, as it would take one hell of an amplified pattern or a very anomalous and strong northward-displaced subtropical ridge to get a tropical cyclone to the united states this time of year.
by the way, it's been mentioned already... but the tornado deaths this year were at a very low 10 until sunday morning's F3 outside of evansville, IN. 23 people, one of which was 8 months pregnant, died in the tornado. there isn't much of a silver lining in 2005. just waiting for the inevitable blizzard.
HF 0641z08november


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Wilma Article [Re: Margie]
      #63494 - Tue Nov 08 2005 09:56 PM

Well we had Katrina pass through here as a cat 1,Then we just had Wilma come through.All I have to do is compare the damage,it's not even close.Wilma did at least 3 times the damage Katrina did here.So it would be very hard for anyone here to believe Wilma was a cat 1.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Wilma Article [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #63496 - Tue Nov 08 2005 10:14 PM

I experienced the eyewall with Katrina & Wilma passing through S Broward county. Katrina was like a bad thunderstorm as it mostly did tree & shrubbery damage. Wilma was much worse, it took off half my roof, most of the trees are a goner around here, and of course it wreaked havoc on the power and communication systems down here. It is just starting to get back to normal around here, though we will see Wilma's scars for quite some time. Wilma may have been reported as a strong Cat 1 when she passed through Broward but, being through the experience and seeing the aftermath there is no doubt in my mind at least in this area that there were strong Cat 2 winds around here.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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