CoconutCandy
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Meanwhile, an interesting disturbance / wave in the central EastPac basin is beginning to look more and more organized by the hour. It's quite possible that this wave originated somewhere in the Atlantic basin a week or more ago.
A 1008 mb low embedded on the wave is producing pronounced low-level turning and the convection, displaced to the south of an exposed LLC yesterday, is now beginning to be covered over by the deep convection, all the while gradually becoming more organized.
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off
... and ...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp
Forming in about the same area where Cosme and Erick did over the past few weeks, I now see that there is a (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) in effect for this wave, so apparently they are expecting something to become of this system.
As I mentioned in a previous post, systems that form 120W, or farther west, are of greater interest to Hawaii than storms forming closer to Mexico. All storms that form here usually head "in the general direction" of the Hawaiian Islands, although very few arrive with much punch left in them after crossing over slightly cooler waters and, more importantly, SW shear that usually protects these Islands from incursions of marauding cyclones from the EastPac.
Also, the 'Erick' remnant is now passing south of the islands as I write, and /NHC even had an invest (91C) on Ericks' possible regeneration for a while yesterday, but it has since been dropped, as convection has dissipated tonight into an amorphous mass of debris clouds.
But as long as some low-level vorticity remains, it may still re-develop as it heads towards warmer waters, if the expected shear isn't too much for it. Like the Cosme remnant that formed into Typhoon Usagi last week, it may develop into a Western Pacific typhoon in a week or so, after crossing over the dateline and entering into a more favorable environment.
But of more concern (interest) is Invest 91E which, if it does develop, will become christened "Flossie".
As an aside, I thought the name "Flossie" was retired (1956), but as it turns out, that storm was spelled "Flossy"
"Sept 24-25, 1956 : "Hurricane Flossy" struck Louisiana and submerged Grand Isle. New Orleans was flooded including its now famous 9th Ward. The hurricane later turned east to Ft. Walton Beach, Fl where it made another landfall. The storm caused millions of dollars in damages with 15 casualties."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Flossy_(1956) <---- More details on Flossy (So apparently, the levees were over-topped and the lower 9th ward was flooded even before Betsy did so in 1965!)
And if Flossie becomes a Hurricane (Not saying at this point that it will!) it'd be ONLY the 2nd Hurricane of the northern hemisphere so far this season.
So far, there's only been Hurricane Cosme !! Just ONE(!) hurricane so far.  Amazing. Especially for the Eastern Pacific, the 2nd most active basin in the world! Far below Climatological averages.
However, it seems likely that, with the , we'll soon have a depression or storm to follow as this system heads westward and towards the Central Pacific basin. Keep y'all posted!
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Rob1966
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KGMB has taken an interest in Flossie. Could be a Hawaii event early next week. Interesting times!!
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CoconutCandy
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Well, I've been away for a day and look what's happened!
The wave / low I mentioned in my first post did finally organize into TD-9E which, on the very next advisory, was upgraded to Tropical Storm Flossie.
Link to the visible "Flossie Floater" complements of the good folks at the Satellite Services Division of NOAA:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html 
The 3rd advisory is just out (issued 11pm Wednesday, Hawaii time and 5am Thursday, Florida time) , and Flossie has been increased again, now to 45 Kts, and is expected to become 'Hurricane Flossie' briefly, before drawing a bead on the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period.
Here's a few excerpted discussions from the advisories that have been issued thus far:
"FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ... SSTS ARE PLENTY WARM WITH CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES AROUND 28C."
So it appears we have a good thermodynamic environment, at least in the short term.
"THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM ... FLOSSIE COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR ..."
If Flossie makes it to Hurricane status it'll be only the 2nd (!) to form so far this year. Quite below the normal for the EastPac basin for this time of year, well into August already.
"THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE."
It should be noted that it's exactly this 'gradual turn' as it approaches the western-most extent of the ridge which will bring it quite close to, or over, the Islands, according to current thinking, assuming the 'end' of the ridge behaves as currently projected, which can be a pretty fickle thing to forecast that far into the future.
You may view the attachment (above link) to see how Flossie's track arcs directly towards the islands. Thankfully, it will be on a weakening trend by then as it travels over slightly cooler waters and will likely become a minimal tropical storm or, even better, just a depression or remnant low before arriving in Hawaiian waters. Let's just hope this will be the case.
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And speaking of remnant lows, there's a quite impressive, fairly large swirl of clouds upwind in the trade flow that is presently making a bee-line for the islands. This feature is the remnant low of an eastern pacific invest from a week or so ago. Long dropped as an invest as it moved over cooler waters, it has now traveled over a thousand miles and appears to be 'juicing up' again as it moves over slightly warmer waters as it approaches the islands riding along in the trade winds.
Although completely devoid of deep convection presently, the night time diurnal cycle is clearly making its' presence known in the form of a greatly improved satellite signature and associated shower activity. I would hazard to guess that there's a pretty good amount of rather 'generous' trade-like showers swirling about this rather healthy-looking remnant low even though, as I mentioned, it is currently lacking any thunderstorm activity.
It's expected to arrive a few days before Flossie, so the Islands could see some decent rainfall, in the form of frequent passing tradewind-like showers, some of which could be pretty generous, even before Flossie brings in heavier and more wide-spread rains, assuming she stays more or less on her presently forecasted track.
Here's an excellent link that's centered on the Hawaiian Islands and showing this rather juicy remnant low plunging head-long towards the islands, firmly entrenched in the tradewind flow. (You can also see Tropical Storm Flossie, entering the theater, stage right.)
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off
The coming week or so should be interesting in Hawaii, weather-wise. 
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CoconutCandy
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A quick update on Tropical Storm Flossie, for those following along ...
It seems that after holding steady for most of the day on Thursday, Flossie is strengthening this early morning during the convective maximum cycle, as had been expected.
A large convective blowup, primarily in the eastern semicircle is the likely culprit for Flossie now being maxed out in the tropical storm category, with it's sustained winds now estimated by at 60 Kts.
And the 'formative' eye, so apparent on passive microwave imaging satellites for most of the day has become even better defined at microwave wavelengths and is now being reflected quite well on animated IR imagery too.
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off
Flossie is, or will soon be, in my opinion, a Hurricane. The eye is now there, and will be visible with the coming daylight hours (local basin time) on the visible satellites, as well. And it appears that the overall circulation envelope is increasing, which would perhaps imply an increase in the radius of tropical storm force winds.
Some discussion in an earlier advisory/discussion seemed to think that increasing easterly shear would be encroaching upon Flossies' circulation and that the global models were not picking up on this fact, and strengthening Flossie to hurricane too optimistically, and that the intensity forecast was accordingly being toned down a bit.
But more recent discussions seem to downplay that, and there isn't any hint of detrimental easterly shear overtaking the cyclone as I write at this hour. It seems that westerly shear might be a factor, however, in the coming days, as well as slightly cooler SST's in it's forecasted path.
It should be interesting to see how Flossie does in the coming convective minimum during the daylight hours, whether it will quash the inner core convection, or whether Flossie will continue it's current convective spin-up and attain bona-fide hurricane stature. It certainly *looks* like a hurricane already.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp
Thankfully, it's expected to weaken to near minimal tropical storm strength while passing safely south of the Big Island. But a lot of variables will come into play and the exact thermodynamic environment Flossie finds herself in in a few days could depart for it's currently forecasted track/intensity, as the numerical models are widely divergent with regard to how all this will pan out as Flossie approaches the Hawaiian Islands.
All this will be watched closely by Hawaii residents and the CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) will assume forecast responsibilities, once Flossie crosses 140W and moves into the Central Pacific basin.
Please feel free to join in the posting if you have anything at all to add or thoughts you'd like to share. 
More to come in the coming days, obviously. Stay tuned for this ride! - Stormin' Norman
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vpbob21
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Flossie has intensified dramatically since yesterday, going from a 65 kt. Cat. 1 storm at this time yesterday to a 115 kt. Cat 4 storm currently. It looks like Flossie is probably peaking, as the cloud tops have warmed a little and the eye is looking a little more ragged the last couple hours. It will be interesting to see how quickly the storm weakens over the next few days as it moves over cooler waters. Official forecast brings it below hurricane strength by the time it reaches the longitude of the Big Island and keeps the storm a couple hundred miles south of the islands. However, the last discussion (CPHC will be taking over the advisories from this point on) did leave open the possibility of a farther right track.
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CoconutCandy
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Note: Just as I was about to post this (composing off-line), I noticed the above post. Thank you vpbob21 for your well written and succinct perspective. I wish I had your flair for conciseness.
And now for an expanded perspective, here is my usual verbose blather:
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Flossie rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Major Hurricane.
Upgraded in the early morning hours to 100 Kts (115 mph) and to 'Major' Cat 3 status, it has further strengthened during the day and is now churning the Central Pacific at an amazing 115 Kts. (132 mph).
The clearly defined eye has just crossed over 140W and the next advisory (11am Hawaii, 5pm Florida) will be issued by the CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center), co-located with the NWS Honolulu Forecast Office at the University of Hawaii at Manoa Campus.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/
I think the Intensity forecast, and what actually happened over the past 24 to 48 hours, has really surprised everyone, especially the good folks at the in Miami, who just issued their final advisory before handing off responsibilities to the CPHC.
I've mentioned several times in earlier posts this season how downright tricky intensity forecasting can sometimes be. For several advisories just 2 days ago, Flossie wasn't even expected to reach hurricane status, after saying that it would in several previous advisories. But the easterly shear never materialized and despite only marginal SST's, the shear has remained quite low and the upper outflow patterns have been good to now excellent.
And what had been mostly a single 'barrel' of inner core convection for most of the last 24 to 36 hours, has now broken out into numerous intense rainbands in all quadrants. Amazing how these mesoscale features sprout out so quickly and morph as they wrap around and spiral inward. It's quite obvious the storm is quickly expanding.
Check out some of these latest visible satellite animations for an excellent example of an explosively deepening hurricane. Note the rapid transformations in the outer rainband structures, presumably triggered by an expanding wind field as hurricane and tropical storm force winds expand outward as this powerful cyclone has just deepened by an impressive 40 mb in a mere 22 hours, going from 65 Kts. to 115 Kts. in that time.
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html
Flossie may be maxing out today and is certainly doing all she can to expand her radius of storm force winds which would leave remaining a large 'circulation envelope', even as it drops back to a tropical storm in a few days (thankfully!).
The next advisory (and the first from the CPHC) should be revealing. Flossies' future track and intensity depend greatly on the extent of a weakness forecast in the ridge to the north of it's projected path and the amount of shear that actually materializes which will knock it down to tropical storm strength as it passes (hopefully) just south of the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week.
I'm sure you'll hear a lot more about Hurricane Flossie in the coming days on the National News and there's a ton of links (and growing) through Google News, ect., for those interested in following this developing storm situation.
Since the Atlantic basin remains quite (for now!) I thought most of you would like to check out Powerful Flossie and follow along on this very real 'major' hurricanes' progress and it's potential threat to the Islands.
Please feel free to add to the post with any thoughts you might have, whether about the storms' structure or it's possible future and evolution as it nears the islands. Although not in your 'Native Basin' you're still very welcome to join in and add to the flavor of the 'Other Basins' forum!
And for some 'eye candy' for you all today, please view the attachment (the link near the title of this post) for a spectacular QuikScat image of Flossie at 115 Kts. Keep in mind that QuikScat does not measure or display winds over 60 Kts, but it's still a very interesting and intensely colorful image. Enjoy!
Warm Aloha Greetings from Honolulu - Norm
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vpbob21
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Flossie continues to defy all intensity predictions tonight ... just about as soon as I posted that the storm had probably peaked Flossie put on another burst of intensification. T numbers climbed to 6.5 supporting a 127 kt. storm, and the CPHC set the intensity at a (by their admission) conservative 120 kts. Judging by the impressive satellite presentation, I would agree the intensity estimate is conservative. Certainly the pressure estimate of 946 mb seems a little high - I would have to suspect if a plane was in there they might find something more like low 930's. One bit of good news - after moving WNW much of today the storm (at least to my untrained eye) seems to have resumed more of a westward course (though it could be just a wobble). Hopefully the track will be a little farther south than forecast, but I imagine there will still be some pretty high surf hitting the S and E facing beaches over the next 2-4 days.
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CoconutCandy
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Flossie continues to impress and amaze.
Although it's sustained winds are down just a tad, back to 115 Kts., (132 mph) it is still maintaining it's minimum Cat 4 ranking.
It's eyewall temps on animated IR imagery has pulsed back and forth for the last 6 to 8 hours, but now appears to have entered a significant, sustained cooling in the past 2 or 3 hours as I write this, about 3am Hawaii time. The coldest temps, as shown on IR loops, are once again spreading, and the short, rainband-like features again sprouting and spinning like a pinwheel rapidly about the eyewall before merging into it. Interesting to watch the morphology of the inner core convection.
>> "HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. FLOSSIE HAS A VERY WARM WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SYSTEM ALSO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A REMARKABLE OUTFLOW."
The outflow continues to be excellent and just improving more, which may be why Flossie is at least holding its' own for now, or even gaining just a bit more.
>> "THERE CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WOBBLES OF THE EYE THAT ARE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ..."
Looking at several microwave overpasses from earlier in the day, I hazard to speculate that Flossie has just undergone an eyewall replacement cycle, which may be related to the "very significant wobbles of the eye", and may be putting on its' 'final harrah', its' last burst of strengthening before the slow weakening commences. Or maybe it's just holding it's own for the time being. We'll find out with the next advisory.
>> "THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE."
Thankfully, the blessed shear will once again come to Hawaii's rescue and knock down Flossie from an extremely dangerous major hurricane to tropical storm status by the time it makes its' closest approach to the Islands. Let's all just pray that the shear arrives and will be as strong as forecast.
Still, it's just rather disconcerting that the most recent plot (track) shows Flossie as a 70 Kt. hurricane just offshore of the SE coast of the Big Island. Certainly, there is going to be huge surf on those coastlines, with the potential for property damage and beach errosen, if this verifies. Let's hope it doesn't.
>> "ALL THOSE WHO ARE FOLLOWING FLOSSIE ARE URGED NOT FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK OF THE CALM EYE. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE EYE WALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE EXTEND FAR BEYOND THIS LINE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE OF FLOSSIE MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IT COULD STILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK ...
... KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND."
The Media Machine is really going to crank up over the next few days, and this developing storm situation will be sure to have plenty of National News exposure if Flossie continues to pose a significant danger to the Islands.
I've heard that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Squadron is sending 3 or 4 C-130's all the way to Hawaii to set up a base of operations to begin regular 6 hourly fixes into Flossie beginning on Monday. That says something in itself. That certainly adds to the gravity of the situation. Stay tuned for this ride!
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CoconutCandy
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it seems that the Islands may see a slightly closer and slightly stronger passage from Flossie than previously expected.
Intensity-wise, no great news to report either, as Flossie has maintained a steady 115 Kts. (135 mph) or minimum Cat 4 hurricane status all day Sunday. Flossie is now maintaining itself as a fully matured, steady state hurricane, soaking up all that oceanic heat content it travels over and churning the open ocean with unbelievably intense winds and waves.
Remember that a min. Cat 4 exerts about 250 times (!) the force, per square foot, than a min. Cat 1. (See my "Hurricane Wind Loading" post, under the "Hurricane Ask/Tell" Forum.)
The latest advisory has been issued (11pm Hawaii, 5am Florida) by the good folks at the CPHC, and here's a few paragraphs from their latest discussion.
>> "THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THIS HURRICANE WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...AND THE APPROXIMATELY 20 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL."
The eyewall had warmed somewhat on Sunday afternoon/evening, local basin time, and the width of the eyewall convection has decreased, as well.
But! In the past few hours (now about 1am HST as I write) we're now entering into our diurnal convective max (not too sure how much effect this has on a powerful, fully matured cyclone like Flossie), a very intense swatch of convection has again flared in the SE semi-circle and has widened considerably, and has now succeeded in wraping around the entire eyewall to provide an impressive satellite presentation of a powerful annular hurricane.
And since SST's remain supportive (for now) and the outflow pattern remains "impressive" (for now) with no sign yet of the shear, and, should the current trend of eyewall convection continue unabated for at least a few more hours, I wouldn't be too surprised to Flossie bump back up to 120 or 125 Kts. This Major Hurricane still shows no sign of abating, where some is surely needed, and soon!
Unfortunately, *more* bad news. Read on:
>> "THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE IMPACT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO FEEL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS."
So hopefully, here comes the shear, once again, to the rescue ...
>> "THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING THE **FUTURE TRACK** AND INTENSITY OF FLOSSIE.
And, reasoning from a previous advisory, a weaker storm would be 'steered' more WNW and pass a hundred miles or so south of the Big Island. On the other hand, a stronger storm (eg: hurricane strength) would more likely 'feel' the effects of the upper level winds and be 'drawn up' and 'steered' more towards the NW, taking it perilously close to the Island chain.
... so, following this line of reasoning ...
>> "RECENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SHEAR MAY BE LESS THAN WAS EXPECTED IN THE RUNS MADE 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ( and hence eventual track ) FOR FLOSSIE REMAINS UNCERTAIN." 
Other tidbits of interest: (and of course, you can always use google news, etc. for the latest webnews stories, and good ol' cable, CNN, Fox, etc., to follow along on this very serious developing storm situation )
- The Air Fore Reconn Hurricane Hunters have arrived in Honolulu Sunday and have made their first flights into Flossie, beginning early Sunday afternoon, Hawaii time.
- The CPHC meteorologists, lead by Director Jim Weyland, are coordinating with the Navy's (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, now based in Pearl Harbor after moving here from Guam) with regard to analyzing and forecasting Flossie, and the aforementioned Air Force Hurricane Hunters.
- A team if 16 FEMA 'specialists' are being dispatched to Honolulu from Oakland, California, presumably for relief coordination, should the storm inflict the need for assistance from FEMA.
- Presumably, the National News teams will be flying in reporters to cover the story, especially if Flossie remains strong and encroaches ever so closer.
- A Hurricane Warning has just been posted, as of 11pm Sunday, for Offshore Waters south of the Big Island, in Flossies' projected path.
- A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for the Big Island within the next 6 to 12 hours.
Frankly, all this is beginning to give me a rather queasy feeling and a growing sense of unease. My intuition is trying to telegraph me that we may be in for more than we bargained for, when all is said and done.
Please pray folks, that the shear will arrive on time and be Strong! to take the "Hawaiian Punch" out of Flossies Luau Spoiler.
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Clark
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Flossie is quite the annular hurricane out there, that's for sure. Today's recon basically confirmed that it is holding its own intensity-wise as a high-end cat 3 or low-end cat 4 hurricane. Fortunately, it's a fairly small storm, but if nothing else, there's going to be some killer surf on the east-facing beaches of the Big Island over the next couple of days!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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bbys35c
Unregistered
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Why is Flossie considered a hurricane and not a typhoon? I thought all storms that originated in the pacific were considered typhoons, anyone have any idea?
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Clark
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Eastern and Central Pacific storms are hurricanes; only those in the Western Pacific are called typhoons. Flossie and Hawaii are both in the Central Pacific, thus the hurricane designator.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Since I can't PM you the answer...
Cyclones get their name from whatever is the presiding weather service (or services) in the area. For example, in Australia they are called cyclones but the traditional name for cyclones in the Aboriginal culture is Willy-Willies. The name hurricane comes from the Native American world for strong wind (I believe or terrible storm). Typhoon is big wind in China/Japan (again, rough translation). Here is information regarding this:
Hurricanes: Atlantic Ocean and the East Pacific Ocean to the International date line in the northern hemisphere
Typhoons: West pacific beyond international date line and in northern hemisphere
Cyclones: Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea), South Pacific, and Australia
Back on topic...quite the annular hurricane Flossie is. Definitely will be interesting to see what happens as annulars just keep going and going and going.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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jams
Unregistered
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just a quick question if flossie did shift toward honolulu would kaneahe be effected by storm surge.kaneahe is 27 miles northeast.i have a cousin stationed at the marine base out there.i know its to early to say it does look like it will miss that area.mountains on the big island would probally weaken the storm
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Clark
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If it made it up that far and made a direct landfall on the island, perhaps a small one. Otherwise, the angle of approach leaves no real stretch of water over which to build waves...in wave terminology, the fetch is quite short due to land interaction. I wouldn't worry too much that far north and west. However, having said that, I am not familiar with the topography of the region, so if there is someone with more intimate knowledge of the reason who wants to chime in, please do so.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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jams
Unregistered
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so far looks far to the south
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DJINFLA
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I spent 7 years on the island of Oahu. You do not have to worry. Kaneohe Marine Corps Air Station is on the northeast part of that island. Oahu is northwest of the Big Island. Flossie is expected to pass south of the Big Island. This part of the island is not nearly as populated as the west/northwest.
Kaneohe should just get some rain. As for the Big Island, they could use the rain right now. From what I'm told by a friend there, it's been very dry.
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CoconutCandy
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Well, it's the Upper-level shear to the rescue, once again. Our 'prayers were answered' and the forecasted shear finally showed up, but only after Flossie put on quite the impressive show as an extremely potent, compact, steady-state, annular Cat 4 Hurricane for over 36 hours, all the while steadily approaching the Big Island for days.
But all is not said and done with quite yet! Far from it. We're certainly not 'out of the woods' yet. Read on ...
While the SW shear did in fact arrive, and is estimated at 25 kts. at 6am Hawaii time, it appears to me that it's not the kind of shear that will rip a hurricane apart in 12 hours. Far from it.
In fact, is you closely study the animated IR and visible satellite loops and, more recently the animated short-range and long-range NEXRAD loops from the Doppler radar located on the SE flank of the Mauna Loa volcano on the Big Island, you'll notice very busy eyewall activity, albeit not quite closed in the SE quad. I'll get back to the continuing eyewall evolution in a moment.
But if you look at these animated satellite loops, you really can't help but notice the cirrus being blown off in all directions, directly from the central eyewall convection, like the spokes radiating out from the hub of a bicycle wheel.
Have a quick peek at: (time sensitive)
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/Hawaii_IR_loop.gif ... and ...
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/State_VIS_loop.gif
... and you will certainly see thousands of fine filaments if cirrus ice crystals streaming directly away from the inner core convection in all directions, although more so in the direction of the shear. I believe this is called 'Transverse Striate Banding' and discussed it in a post earlier this season.
My understanding is that this phenomena is evidence of a 'well-ventilated' cyclone and is often associated with the beginnings of a deepening cycle, as a TS into a hurricane or a min cat hurricane into a much stronger hurricane.
The point I am trying to make here is that these most recent animated satellite signatures do *not* look like a hurricane that is being quashed and ripped apart all too quickly, as we've all seen so many times over the years, but rather a cyclone that is at least holding it's own for the time being, or even attempting a strengthening phase.
My layman's interpretation is that the shear is lessening a tad to provide this satellite signature, or Flossie is persisting to maintain itself despite whatever shear there currently is. At any rate, Flossie is still a quite respectable hurricane.
Back to the eyewall dynamics: I've been watching Flossies' eyewall since first showed upon long range NEXRAD (now visible on short range, as well) and can say that, despite the 'visible' eyewall collapse on IR loops overnight, the eyewall has increased in convection considerably, and is verified with recent IR and visible loops, too. (See again the above links for visual eyewall transformations.)
Here's a link for the short range NEXRAD loop, so you can follow along as Flossie passes just south of the Big Island.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=HWA&product=N0R&overlay=01100111&loop=yes
So, although Flossie has thankfully been sheared to some extend, she remains a viable and potentially dangerous storm, should she encroach closer to any islands.
It should be noted that in the latest (11am HST) advisory/discussion package, mention of the fact that, after 24 hours, models diverge considerably, and a closer approach to, yet parallel to the islands still cannot be ruled out.
And whatever shear there is would push a stronger storm on a more northerly track. So we'll still have to watch Flossie very closely for another day or two. Hurricanes passing south of the Islands can be treacherous and sometimes difficult to accurately predict with regard to intensity and track, especially of the upper level dynamics to not pan out exactly as forecast, etc.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up and the prudent Hurricane Watch, as well, and the topography of the Big Island volcanic slopes will certainly have an effect, possibly resulting in near-hurricane or hurricane force gusts in certain prone locations, and the surf is pounding in and will surely cause run up and property damage in exposed locations.
Keep one eye on Dean and the Invest in the GOM, but keep the other on the Eye of Flossie as she slows down and lumbers past the Big Island today and tonight.
Thanks to all that have contributed to the post. Keep it up!
More later when I can find the time ...
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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Wow. What a shear job.
Since my last post, just over 12 hours ago, the shear has really increased dramatically.
You may remember, I was discussing Flossies' eyewall dynamics, and for a short time just after posting, Flossie even regained a decent eyewall with very deep convection and a clear eye showing on visible and IR satellite for an hours or so.
But since that 'last hurrah', the shear has ripped the top off Flossies' circulation and the LLC is beginning to emerge to the west of what's left of the remaining convection.
Winds are down from earlier today, and the system has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. Further weakening is expected and what's left of Flossie will track WNW away from the Islands.
Once again, Hawaii has dodged the bullet, so to speak, and the shear has come to the rescue once again. Thanks for all your prayers and thanks to the almighty shear for kicking in and doing an excellent job in quashing the once-potent Flossie.
Sure would be nice if we could do that for every hurricane that threatens an area!
We now return you to your regular scheduled programming, already in progress: Dean and TD-5. Good luck, Atlantic basin, for the upcoming onslaught of hurricanes and storms in the coming weeks. As a former resident of Coconut Grove, near Miami, I will be following the rest of the season quite closely.
I will sleep well tonight, knowing Flossie will soon be but a memory. It's a good thing! 
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Yep, Flossie finally bit the metaphorical dust in the face of all of that shear. Tropical systems are resilient little things, but they can usually only hold their own in the face of one significant negative factor. For awhile, Flossie did just that in the face of fairly cool SSTs. Once the shear got added, it became a different story.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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