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Hurricane Edouard Moving NW in the Central Atlantic Odile in east pacific landfalls in Cabo San Lucas in Baja MX as a Major Hurricane.
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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 243
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Hurricane 'BUD' Strengthens to CAT 3 / Landfall Uncertain
      #92553 - Wed May 23 2012 02:31 PM

After several days fluctuating in intensity as a weak tropical storm, 'BUD' appears to be making the long awaited trend towards intensification.

Animated Visible Satellite Imagery this early morning, local basin time, reveals a steady increase in the degree of organization of the convective activity, with several pronounced banding features blossoming out some distance from the center of circulation, nearly always one of the harbingers of further intensification.



In the visible animated loop, above, you can already see what appears to be the beginning of a 'dimple' developing over the nascent eye, a good indication of subsidence around the 200 mb level, and the ongoing formation and establishing of the eyewall structure. I would expect 'BUD' to have a splendid eye within about 6-12 hours hence.

However, the cyclone doesn't appear to be perfectly well aligned in the vertical quite yet, as a fairly recent passive microwave imaging satellite has revealed. The inner convective ring, the developing eyewall structure (in red), seems to be displaced some distance to the SE from the low level circulation center (in light blue).



But, given the ongoing and expected convective trends, it would seem that it's only a matter of time before 'BUD' becomes the season's first hurricane, as the cyclone attains better vertical alignment and the inner core convection closes off to establish a true eyewall structure.

Track Guidance suggests recurvature over the next few days, as 'BUD' maxes out in intensity around 70 or 75 kts., then weakens a bit, perhaps back to tropical storm strength, before it's rendezvous with the western Mexican coastline.

But a variance in it's eventual track by just a little to the left or right would put 'BUD' on the coastline over a fairly broad area. It is much to soon to be confident of the exact area of landfall.

Interests in the potentially affected areas are advised to stay appraised of the ongoing developments of Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) 'BUD' and it's possible effects as a landfalling storm in a few days.

More when I can find the time ...




--------------------
"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina

Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu May 24 2012 05:53 PM)


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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 243
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
Hurricane 'BUD' Nearing CAT 3 Strength / Landfall Seems More Certain [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #92566 - Thu May 24 2012 05:54 PM

Hurricane 'BUD' has Unexpectedly Strengthened today to NEARLY a Category 3 Hurricane, (clocking in at 100 Kts. in the most recent imagery from the NRL website), with central pressure estimated to be down to 961 mb.



But the latest advisory is holding it at 95 Kts. for the time being, with 100 Kts. quite easily attainable overnight.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BUD AND ON THE FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THE PLANE MEASURED A MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATE OF 89 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KT, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS ONCE IT FLIES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.


Hurricane 'Bud' WAS expected to max out around 70-75 Kts. at this time yesterday. I had speculated, and then deleted from my previous post, the ever-present possibility of 'explosive deepening' and rapid intensification.

But then when I saw how *tightly clustered* the intensity guidance was, unanimously peaking at 70 kts., I actually redacted the paragraph in which I had 'intuitively' surmised (correctly!) the possibility of exactly that: Explosive Deepening.

ALL of the Intensity Guidance was Far Too Low !!

Those familiar with my style of posting, know that I often post, year after year, about the issue of Unexpected Intensification, still very much remaining one of the greatest challenges for hurricane forecaster and researcher alike.

And with regard to 'Bud's TRACK Guidance? That's been no picnic for the guys at the NHC, either.

Several advisories HAD Hurricane 'Bud' approaching, but not quite making, landfall about 1/2 way between Manzanillo and Puerto Villarta, but then suddenly REVERSING it's track at a nearly 180 angle, and sending it back AWAY from the coastline again.

However, the most recent advisory just out 1 1/2 hour ago, has 'Bud' making landfall once again, and this time as a hurricane. Hurricane / Tropical Storm Warnings are now posted for a section of the coastline, as shown below.

The reverse of course is still expected, as the system will then be ejected off of the Mexican coast by developing high pressure to it's east, interestingly similar to how the models seem to want to do with Invest 94L in the Atlantic!



More on Hurricane 'Bud's ongoing and forecast track and intensity to be posted overnight ...


--------------------
"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina

Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu May 24 2012 07:05 PM)


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