Hurricane 'BUD' Strengthens to CAT 3 / Landfall Uncertain

After several days fluctuating in intensity as a weak tropical storm, 'BUD' appears to be making the long awaited trend towards intensification.

Animated Visible Satellite Imagery this early morning, local basin time, reveals a steady increase in the degree of organization of the convective activity, with several pronounced banding features blossoming out some distance from the center of circulation, nearly always one of the harbingers of further intensification.

In the visible animated loop, above, you can already see what appears to be the beginning of a 'dimple' developing over the nascent eye, a good indication of subsidence around the 200 mb level, and the ongoing formation and establishing of the eyewall structure. I would expect 'BUD' to have a splendid eye within about 6-12 hours hence.

However, the cyclone doesn't appear to be perfectly well aligned in the vertical quite yet, as a fairly recent passive microwave imaging satellite has revealed. The inner convective ring, the developing eyewall structure (in red), seems to be displaced some distance to the SE from the low level circulation center (in light blue).

But, given the ongoing and expected convective trends, it would seem that it's only a matter of time before 'BUD' becomes the season's first hurricane, as the cyclone attains better vertical alignment and the inner core convection closes off to establish a true eyewall structure.

Track Guidance suggests recurvature over the next few days, as 'BUD' maxes out in intensity around 70 or 75 kts., then weakens a bit, perhaps back to tropical storm strength, before it's rendezvous with the western Mexican coastline.

But a variance in it's eventual track by just a little to the left or right would put 'BUD' on the coastline over a fairly broad area. It is much to soon to be confident of the exact area of landfall.

Interests in the potentially affected areas are advised to stay appraised of the ongoing developments of Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) 'BUD' and it's possible effects as a landfalling storm in a few days.

More when I can find the time ...

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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina

Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu May 24 2012 05:53 PM)

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