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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 313 (Nate) , Major: 331 (Maria) Florida - Any: 341 (Irma) Major: 341 (Irma)
50.4N 25.6W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 999mb
Ene at 35 mph
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News Talkback >> 2018 News Talkbacks

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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3955
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hector Tracking Hawaii too Close for Comfort in Pac. Debby Spins Fish in Atl.
      #99354 - Thu Aug 02 2018 10:05 PM

1PM Update 7 Aug 2018
Invest 97L has become Sub-Tropical Storm Debby out in the north-central Atlantic. Debby is is expected to be short-lived and unlikely to affect land as a named cyclone.

9AM update 4 August 2018
Hurricane Hector is likely to stay south of the Hawaiian islands, but is close enough to feel some effects from rough surf, it should be monitored over the next week.

Invest 97L is out in the central Atlantic but likely to not affect land, it has a 20% chance for development.

Original Update

August has started and the Atlantic basin is quiet, which is fairly usual for the start of August, things typically don't get going until mid to late August, and that seems to be the case this year.

However, in the Pacific, Hurricane Hector has increased to 110mph winds tonight, and the official forecast is starting to close in near Hawaii. Flhurricane normally does not discuss systems outside of the Atlantic since we don't have as many tools available, but we do make exceptions for any Hawaii threats.

The Current 5 day forecast keeps Hector as a Major Category 3 hurricane southeast of the Big Island, and some models project it may get closer mid to late next week (See the forecast lounge for details on that) However, some of the models keep it south of Hawaii, so it's in the monitoring state right now, but with a few of the models taking it over or near Hawaii it's time to start watching it. Odds are it stays south of Hawaii, however.

This will likely change some as the days progress, but it is important to watch into next week. If it approaches Hawaii next week, it will likely weakening (slowly) as it approaches, however. the threat to the Big Island is irritated by the active lava flows in the Puna region, and the non-native extremely tall and brittle Albizia trees are very susceptible to being blown over in even moderate Tropical Storm force winds.

We'll be monitoring it and update if the threat increases or not, since the timeframe for landfall (if it were to occur) would be mid to late next week, there are no cones showing approach. By this weekend there may be a better idea of it, and much more of one early next week. Those in the Big Island, and Maui should keep tabs of the system.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:


KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)


Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser


Big Island News Now

Hawaii Tracker Big Island News

Invest 97L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 97L - New for 2018

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 07 2018 02:47 PM)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1673
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Atlantic Basin Quiet, But Monitoring Hawaii for Hector [Re: MikeC]
      #99358 - Mon Aug 06 2018 02:37 PM

Probably just about Cat 5 for a while now. Also, rather annular.

Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 137kts (157.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNW (329°) of center fix at 17:36:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 52° at 146kts (From the NE at 168.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) of center fix at 17:35:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix at 17:42:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 240° at 123kts (From the WSW at 141.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SE (144°) of center fix at 17:41:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,038m (9,967ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNW (327°) from the flight level center at 17:35:30Z

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