cieldumort
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Hurricane Rosa is a powerful hurricane of at least Cat 2 (Saffir-Simpson) wind intensity. At 8AM PST, Rosa was located at 17.2N 115.4W, or about 530 miles southwest of southernmost Baja California. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 105 MPH with a minimum central pressure estimated of 970 MB.
Fall is a time of year when both E Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones often tend to track more to the northeast (recurve), as mid-latitude systems adjust steering currents, often sweeping a tropical cyclone up, up, but not always exactly away.
Many models and their ensembles forecast such a scenario with Rosa, taking the tropical cyclone northeast or east-northeast across or near Baja California and into the southwestern United States, mostly as a still coherent warm-cored area of low pressure. In fact, several top models and/or their ensemble runs anticipate that Rosa will still have a closed surface center entering the southwestern US.
This is where we can discuss model outputs and thoughts on Rosa's future track and intensity and we can consider it a sort of "Rosa Forecast Lounge."
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 30 2018 06:13 AM)
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cieldumort
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Cat 4 Rosa Sep 28 2018 0530z
Rosa became a Cat 3 during the afternoon of Thursday Sep 28, and by evening a Cat 4.
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cieldumort
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11:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 29
Location: 21.0°N 118.5°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph
Rosa is starting to cross cooler waters and is interacting with some stable air from her west to northwest and increasing shear. These will likely begin weakening the tropical cyclone into landfalls, but Rosa is going to be a heavy rain-maker for the southwestern U.S. and Baja peninsula.
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cieldumort
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PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE ROSA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0120E ROSA
C. 30/1200Z
D. 24.9N 118.0W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE ROSA FOR
01/1800Z NEAR 28.5N 116.3W.
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cieldumort
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MarkFSU
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Has there ever been a system that has maintained or strengthened while over the Gulf of California?
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