Hurricane Rosa is a powerful hurricane of at least Cat 2 (Saffir-Simpson) wind intensity. At 8AM PST, Rosa was located at 17.2N 115.4W, or about 530 miles southwest of southernmost Baja California. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 105 MPH with a minimum central pressure estimated of 970 MB.
Fall is a time of year when both E Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones often tend to track more to the northeast (recurve), as mid-latitude systems adjust steering currents, often sweeping a tropical cyclone up, up, but not always exactly away.
Many models and their ensembles forecast such a scenario with Rosa, taking the tropical cyclone northeast or east-northeast across or near Baja California and into the southwestern United States, mostly as a still coherent warm-cored area of low pressure. In fact, several top models and/or their ensemble runs anticipate that Rosa will still have a closed surface center entering the southwestern US.
This is where we can discuss model outputs and thoughts on Rosa's future track and intensity and we can consider it a sort of "Rosa Forecast Lounge."
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Hurricane Rosa - SW US
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