11AM Update Not too much has changed with the NHC track. Maybe slightly left... more into Central Florida, as a somewhat curved track.
Jeanne's structure is being affected by cold water being upwelled and the dry air around it. Which will keep intensity in check at least for the time being. As it moves out of the upwelled water area it will encounter higher water temperatures and have a chance to restrengthen. It's outflow and form has remained strong, so it can spin back up quicker than say Frances could when it fell apart. Jeanne and Frances are different storms, and I wouldn't base Jeanne on what Frances did do. How much time Jeanne stays over the warmer water will determine if the storm is a category 2 or 3 when it makes landfall. In either case, the trend will likely be strengthening at landfall.
There might be a time where the storm goes a bit more southward, because of the ridge. It will most assuredly drive the people staring at satellites looking for movement trends and wobbles crazy.
This could still change. The watches are still in effect, Hurricane Warnings are up now for the northern Bahama Islands.
More to come...
Original Update Hurricane Watches are up in Florida from Florida City to St. Augustine.
Hurricane Jeanne, still with a bit of dry air, has weakened a tad, but still has a chance to restrengthen -- in fact the forecast has the storm as a category 3 storm when approaching the coast, stronger than Frances. The track however, has shifted east a bit, not with a very oblique landfall (if the current NHC track holds, which is not likely) along cape Canaveral into New Smyrna/Daytona Beach. But some models push it further south and west while others keep it just offshore. There are no sure bets.
Folks in the watch area need to prepare, a quote from the Melbourne Hurricane Local statement says it best,
"For the residents of east central Florida... Please do not hesitate in putting up your guard This has been an exhausting hurricane season with many folks having already experienced considerable property damage and personal stress. However... Hurricane Jeanne poses a real and great thread to our communities. Be strong and take precaution. Help others in need. Stay Calm." Which is the better than I could have put it.
Hope for the best, there is still a chance for this to miss Florida, but I fear again Florida will be dealing with another storm, possibly the 3rd major storm landfall of the year.
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