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Loc: Orlando, FL
Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms
      Tue Sep 14 2004 11:08 AM

2PM EDT Update
Hurricane Ivan is holding as a Category 4 storm, and the eye is roughly 40 miles wide now. Intensity is expected to fluctuate and go down a little bit more, the track remains the same.

Jeanne has strengthened a bit this morning, recon has found winds around 50MPH as it approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It has the chance to strengthen a bit more as time goes on. Good luck to those in Puerto Rico like CyclonEye (s2k) and others.

Original Update
Hurricane Ivan has gone through weakening this morning, with pressures rising and windspeed falling. Ivan's windspeed at 11AM (EDT) was 140MPH, but according to the National Hurricane Center it actually may be slightly less as they were still waiting on a few more recon reports at the time of the advisory.

Errors may be large in this track, folks in the Hurricane Watch area must prepare.



The track remains very similar to the last one this morning so there are no changes there--maybe a little more west. It projects Landfall near the Alabama, Nississippi border, and it looks fairly solid. (Athough all the areas in the Hurricane watch need to prepare, storms are fickle)


(Track Map Thanks to Skeetobite)
Ivan is forecast to weaken some more, but before it arrives it land it will go over a warm eddy in the Gulf and have a chance to restrengthen a bit. Ivan will likely still be a major Hurricane when it makes landfall.

Jeanne is a minimal Tropical Storm over the leeward islands in the Caribbean, Tropical storm warnings are up for other islands in the area. a windy, rainy event for them. After that, models trend it northwest but East of the Bahamas. Not sure on it yet. Time to watch later.

More to come later.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop

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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 14 2004 11:08 AM
. * * Please let that be a jog Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:30 PM
. * * 5:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:34 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 Renee   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:08 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:15 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: 5:00 mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Please let that be a jog Bloodstar   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Cane Watcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Gravity Waves LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Mongo   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Atlanta Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta Mozart   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Atlanta doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Daytonaman   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Water vapor ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor ddrehman   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Rick on the Boat rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:54 PM
. * * the 1:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:46 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:00 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:25 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 luki   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: the 1:00 lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat storm chaser   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 PM
. * * Ivan's new path LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:56 PM
. * * JEANNE LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:14 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:16 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE St. David   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE Fletch   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:13 PM
. * * Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown scottsvb   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:33 PM
. * * The Cone Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Just to right of prediction Ed in Va   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction Fletch   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Just checking in... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction GENIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM
. * * looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... GENIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:27 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:28 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:04 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: looking at the water vapor loop..... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Just to right of prediction trinibaje   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown RevUp   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's Slowdown Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Re: JEANNE andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path AgentB   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path eulogia   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path aliehs   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path belleami   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path doug   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path schmoo   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan's new path ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:47 PM
. * * JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:00 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon AgentB   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: JBs just full of good news this afternoon LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat clueless   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Ivan and the Dreaded Cone rmbjoe1954   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat eulogia   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:08 PM
. * * Tired of Lurking Part 2 poetdi   Tue Sep 14 2004 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Rick on the Boat Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor bella   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Water vapor LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Jeanne turning West? Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:43 PM
. * * FL Threats Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:43 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:06 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:28 PM
. * * Re: FL Threats kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Gravity Waves Cane Watcher   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:43 AM
. * * Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tampa Bay NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook okiherdu   Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM
. * * Post From Colleen from the previous thread LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread Tampa Joe   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread ROB IN PA   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread ROB IN PA   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread mlamay   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Post From Colleen from the previous thread davet   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms VandyBrad   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM
. * * gestational diabetes tpratch   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: gestational diabetes LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms kelcot   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms meto   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms MO stormspotter   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:17 AM

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