Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening

4:30PM Update
Model guidance has shifted dramatically to the west, we are awaiting the 5PM National Hurricane Center discussion and forecast to see what the meaning is.

Expect the unexpected.

Noon Update
Katrina is now a Category 2 hurricane... more to come later.

11 AM Update

Katrina has strengthened a bit more, and the pressure has dropped in the advisory to 981. However, a recon report that come shortly after the public advisory reported the pressure at 971 mb. Which indicates that Katrina may well be on it's way to category 2 status.

In fact, a special advisory may be issued shortly by the NHC shortly to increase the maximum sustained winds to 80kt/92mph, with a corresponding and rather dramatic pressure drop to 971mb.

I am a bit reluctant to mention more because of what occurred with Dennis earlier this year. When toward the end it did weaken as much as it gained strength. Katrina has the potential to become a major hurricane, and in fact is now forecast to by the time it nears the coast, and if the recon report is accurate, it may become a major much sooner than that. I'll be looking for situations (like dry air, shear, etc) that could cause Katrina to weaken.

But do not let your guard down in the Panhandle for Katrina because of what occurred with Dennis!

Model consensus is fairly solid now with the future track, the cone of error still should be watched.

The 11am forecast track is largely unchanged from the 5am track, towards the general vicinity of the Ft. Walton-Panama City area, but the intensity forecast will have to be moved upward from the 100-105kt projected in the 11a package at landfall. Stay tuned -- Katrina is getting better organized in a rapid fashion as it drifts north of the Keys.

(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)

9 AM Update

Katrina is back up to Hurricane Status this morning and is moving slowly west. The turn to the north, most likely along the NHC forecast track, should happen sometime today. Everyone in the cone needs to be watching this system, especially in the Panhandle. (As much as I hate to say that again)

The north side of the storm is farily dry, whereas the southern side of this storm has most of the percipitation this morning. So that's good news for keeping flooding rains away from the Peninsula for the most part. Unless the eastern side wraps around later today. The cloud shield of the storm is still very impressive.

More to come later.

Original Update
Katrina is a Troical Storm once again, albeit a very strong one, nearing the sparsely populated extreme southwestern coast of Florida and is expected to move out into the Gulf fairly shortly.

Tropical Storm Warnings have been Extended to include the entire Florida Keys, and the Dry Tortugas.

The storm has held together remarkably well as it moved westward, so strengthening after it enters the Gulf is fairly likely. More in the morning.

For a lot more future thinking, see Ed and Clark's blog below.

Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Emergency Management/County info
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Katrina

Google Map plot of Katrina

Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State
Bahamas Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Eglin Air Force Bace, Radar Panhandle
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L

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