8:00AM CDT 16 June, 2026 Update
Invest 90L is over land and still has a 60% chance to develop. The energy is stretched out along the front, but the best track position has it located there northwest of Brownsville near Encino, TX. This area has a chance to develop once it reaches the water, but anything that does (if it does) is likely to be short lived. The impact remains heavy, flooding rainfall.


1:40PM CDT 15 June, 2026 Update
The Area of Interest has just been Invest-tagged, 90L. Specialized model runs will begin shortly and recon is being tentatively scheduled.

Ciel

1:00PM CDT 15 June, 2026 Update
Chances for development of this system are up to 50%, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings could be issued as early as tomorrow for portions of the NW Gulf.

12:00PM CDT 15 June, 2026 Update

Widespread flash flooding, some of it catastrophic, continues. WPC has greatly expanded the MODERATE RISK outline



4:45PM CDT 14 June, 2026 Update


The risk of Flash Flooding across the south is going way up in response to the abundant influx of deep, tropical moisture courtesy of the area of low pressure we have been tracking and which is now inland over northeastern Mexico feeding into and interacting with an approaching wind shift front that is forecast to pull up mostly stationary for several days. Ground will likely become saturated if it isn't already across portions of south Texas, southeast Texas and Louisiana, and a multi-day, life-threatening flood event may be setting up.
Ciel


10:00AM CDT 13 June, 2026 Update

Above: This morning's visible image of the Gulf Low overlaid with GFS-analyzed 10-meter winds cr. TC-ATLAS

The Low in the western Gulf continues to gradually become better organized and is now likely centered just east of Tampico, MX, heading generally NW to NNW. Fluctuations in its path are likely over the next 3-7 days, but it is mostly modeled to head inland and then either track just inland from the coast of Texas, bumping into an approaching front, or reemerge off the coast roughly east of Brownsville, TX early next week.

The greatest risk with the area of low pressure in the western Gulf is going to be from the potential for several days of tropical rainfall and flooding, regardless of whether or not it becomes a Tropical Depression. The same will be true should it become a Tropical Depression, but never get a name. This is a system that is cranking up loads and loads of moisture into eastern Mexico, Texas and Louisiana, is likely to get stuck underneath a stalling front, and then get wrung out over the course of 3-7 days over many of the same areas. Flooding is always a serious risk with 'weak' systems that slow down or stall, but unfortunately, all-too-often these systems do not get the attention they deserve because they lack a name or title.
-Ciel

7:45AM CDT 12 June, 2026 Update
An area of low pressure has indeed formed in the Bay of Campeche. This is a very favorable region for Tropical Cyclogenesis and despite less-than-ideal conditions for development, development is possible and in fact the odds appear to be going up. An Invest tag is likely coming, specialized model runs would be added, and perhaps recon will also be tasked, depending.
-Ciel


Original Update
The 8am update for the tropical weather outlook now has the first area of interest for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season. This area would be the remnants of Cristina in the East Pacific after it crosses Guatemala and Mexico, which has a lot of high mountains. It's overall unlikely to develop, but worth watching in those areas and later on in the Gulf side of Mexico, and rainfall could reach its way into Texas after this. It'll be monitored for mid to late next week, but at this time development chances appear to be very low.






The remnants of east pacific Cristina with some tropical storm warnings up along Guatemala and El Salvador now:



Forecast Lounge discussion for this system in https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...gonew=1#UNREAD

June 1st is the start of the official Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs until November 30th

This year is expected to be lower than average because of the el nino effect. This is basically a periodic event in the Pacific ocean that warms up temperatures there in the eastern Pacific, which tends to lower pressure there, and force trade winds to be stronger over the Atlantic, as well as the mid Atlantic back feed, which causes windshear and more stability in the atmosphere in general in the Atlantic, which dampens the hurricane season. However, it does not prevent it, some notable storms like hurricane Andrew happened in an El Nino year. So it's important to watch. It does favor storms doing odd tracks and patterns where it typically won't form as far out, for those that form.

In the near term although there is some moisture, there's nothing organized in the Atlantic that looks like it could develop in the next week or two. But the areas typically to watch this time of year are off the southeast coast and Gulf. Have a plan in place if you live in an evacuation area, and get be prepared now, not when a storm is bearing down on you.

Another year here 31st year for flhurricane.com. With some new features like the hurricane radar page on the left, focusing on Atlantic coastal hurricane radars (and Hawaii). We've also made it easier to share graphics like models, satellites and radar in the posts, just upload or even copy paste images into the forums this year, and crop/resize them right on the site.

Names for this year:



The National Hurricane center is the official source for advisories, warnings, and more, use https://nhc.noaa.gov for the best information. floridadisaster.org for emergency information in Florida. And local media (Tv, radio, papers, etc) for the best information for your particular area if the need arises.

Flhurricane stays away from hype and engagement farming, we do have social media on X and facebook, that we update when necessary. Posting long range modeling runs without context on the main site/socials is something we actively avoid since this we think is generally unhelpful and just causes confusion to highlight them. However, it doesn't mean they are not discussed, for those interested it can be found on the forecast lounge here on flhurricane.com.

There's nothing for the first week in the Atlantic, and over the next two weeks the most likely place to see development is not in the Atlantic, but in the east Pacific.

Today is the first day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. June 1st is the start of the Atlantic one, however the national hurricane center begins to issue advisories for

The Atlantic names this year are with Leah replacing 2020's Laura.

This year we've fixed up a lot of formerly broken things, and working to recover more. The Hurricane Radar on the left is a fully custom set of radars for this site mimicking the old South Florida Water Management style, static, loops, and interactive map radar. Maps and Coordinates and Image Recordings have been improved, as well as the posts and replies, being easier (copy and paste) to bring in maps and images into the forum replies. The server has been moved and updated to be more modern as well.

Code:

---

Tropical Weather Outlook

 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

 800 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026



 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:



 Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.



 Today, May 15, marks the first day of the routine issuance of the

 Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2026. This product

 describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their

 potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven

 days. The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through

 November 30 each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM,

 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in

 November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.



 A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide

 updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances

 of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks

 will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular

 Tropical Weather Outlooks.



 A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on

 the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov.

---

Dr Phil Klotzbach has released the Colorado state university numbers.



1. Seasonal Numbers at a Glance
CSU is projecting activity levels roughly 75% of a typical season.

• Named Storms: 13 (Average: 14.4)
  
• Hurricanes: 6 (Average: 7.2)
  
• Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+): 2 (Average: 3.2)
  
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): 90 (Average: 123)
  

2. The Florida Outlook: Landfall Probabilities
While the overall storm count is lower, Florida remains the most vulnerable state in the U.S. The 2026 report provides specific probabilities for major hurricane landfalls:

• Florida Peninsula (South and East of Cedar Key): 15% (Long-term average: 21%)
  
• Gulf Coast and Panhandle (West of Cedar Key to Brownsville, TX): 20% (Long-term average: 27%)
  
• Proximity Risk: There is a 43% chance of a hurricane passing within 50 miles of Florida and a 21% chance of a major hurricane doing so.
  

3. Primary Drivers: The "El Niño" Factor
The defining feature of the 2026 season is the transition from a weak La Niña to a moderate-to-strong El Niño during the peak months (August–October).

• Wind Shear: El Niño typically creates high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic's Main Development Region (MDR). This "rips" storms apart before they can organize.
  
• Atmospheric Stability: Sinking air (subsidence) over the Caribbean and Atlantic is expected to suppress storm formation further.
  
• Atlantic Temperatures: While the Atlantic remains warm, it is not as anomalously hot as in recent record-breaking years, and the shear from El Niño is expected to be the dominant "hurricane slayer" this season.
  

4. Historical Analogs
CSU identifies years with similar climate setups to help predict 2026’s behavior. The primary analog years are:

• 2006 and 2009: Very quiet seasons for Florida landfall due to strong El Niño conditions.
  
• 2015: An extremely quiet year for the U.S. East Coast.
  
• 2023: A high storm count (20) but mostly storms that stayed out to sea, though Florida’s Big Bend was hit by Hurricane Idalia.
  
• Quality over Quantity: A below-average forecast does not mean zero risk. Forecasters frequently cite 1992 (Hurricane Andrew) as the ultimate warning: a very quiet, below-average year that produced one of the most devastating Category 5 landfalls in Florida history.
  
• Western Formation: Because El Niño suppresses storms in the deep tropics, 2026 may see more "homegrown" development in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. These storms often have shorter lead times for us here in Florida.
  

Your preparations should be identical to any other year. See https://www.floridadisaster.org/planprepare/preparing-for-hurricane-season/

One thing to note, this year has a higher chance for early season activity, even if only tropical storms. We'll be watching here at flhurricane.

This year we make it very easy to share images in posts, copy paste them in directly, or upload them for a button. You can then resize/crop them if you want. This is so you can share photos, satellites, model images and simple gif animations this year.
Windows folks can hit "Windows Key+Ctrl+S" to take snippets from your screen and then paste into here in the replies. more to come this year.

Reply here with your own guesses at numbers, which will close around the start of the season.