2:00PM CDT 1 September, 2026 Update
NHC has confirmed that Edouard has further intensified and is now making landfall as a 60 MPH 996 MB Tropical Storm. Additional strengthening is slightly possible, but not implicitly forecast. Once inland, given the small size of this cyclone, rapid weakening could commence within 12 hours.
Ciel

1:30PM CDT 1 September, 2026 Update

Edouard is making landfall in southwestern Louisiana as a mid-range 50+ MPH tropical storm. The cyclone does have radar returns that suggest winds could be at or near 60 heading into landfall, but awaiting NHC determination.

Compared to the other names we have had in the Atlantic basin this year, Edouard may be the best-looking. Certainly an A for effort.

CIel

7:30AM CDT 1 September, 2026 Update
A few changes.

For one, Edouard may be pushing inland a little bit north and a little earlier than was the forecast just last night. It may yet still slow down and/or bend a little west again however, so this is not certain. Nonetheless, locations closer to the TX/LA border may want to prep in case the core tracks much closer to this region than expected.

An earlier landfall could help cap its intensity. Most mets and weather geeks looking at this system take it right up to upper-end Tropical Storm, but Edouard becoming a hurricane is still very possible, and this is explicitly mentioned by NHC. In fact, Edouard has been building an eyewall since late last night. Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Warnings are already in effect. Three to five feet of storm surge is forecast for locations between High Island, TX and the Vermilion/Iberia Parish line.

The cyclone is far wetter than it was yesterday, so having heavy rains cross a larger area is now more likely.
Ciel

2:00AM CDT 1 September, 2026 Update


Banding and the incipient inner core continue improving overnight, and Edouard may be kicking off one of possibly two rounds of meaningful intensification prior to pushing inland.

Those along the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana may want to pay closer attention and out of caution take some initial hurricane preps.
Ciel


10:30PM CDT 31 August, 2026 Update
A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning are up for portions of the NW Gulf coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for High Island to the Cameron Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line
Ciel

7:00PM CDT 31 August 2026, Update
FIVE has become Tropical Storm Edouard and conditions for further intensification heading towards landfall along the upper Texas coast and/or far southwestern Louisiana are in place.
Ciel

2:00PM ET 31 August, 2026 Update
FIVE has become a tropical cyclone and is now Tropical Depression FIVE (No longer 'Potential'). It was very close and many would argue that NHC could have just classified it a few hours ago, but there is no question now.

Winds to near tropical storm force have recently occurred in the more vigorous band on the south side of the center and FIVE is forecast to become Edouard later today or sometime tonight. As the center was pulled a little further east of its location yesterday in response to a blowup of convection on that side of the system, FIVE will probably now have even more time over the very warm gulf waters. Some model runs ramp it up quite a bit more than the official forecast and this is partly why.
Ciel

1:00PM ET 31 August, 2026 Update
Recon has found sufficient organization within Invest 97L for NHC to begin Advisories on PTC FIVE (Potential Tropical Cyclone). FIVE is expected to become Tropical Storm Edouard tonight and head towards the upper Texas coast.

Elsewhere, Invest Dolly has been decimated by shear while skirting the Greater Antilles. Regeneration odds now only NHC 10%.
Ciel


1:00PM ET 30 August, 2026 Update


Some very real concerns during strong El Niño years is for waves to be held in check until they are coming much closer to land and also for fronts and/or trofs to linger over the Gulf and/or Gulf stream. We are now seeing these risks in action today as both Invest 97L and Invest Dolly are knocking on our door.

Interests in Louisiana and eastern Texas, perhaps especially the upper Texas coast, may want to begin paying close attention to Invest 97L. Conditions are becoming favorable for further development and a Tropical Depression or Storm could form within 48 hours.

Interests from the Bahamas to Cuba to South Florida may want to begin paying close attention to what we have been calling "Invest Dollly" (Former Tropical Storm Dolly). Conditions in the Gulf and Southwest Atlantic are becoming favorable for further development and a Tropical Depression or Storm could reform within 96 hours.
Ciel


9:30PM ET 29 August, 2026 Update
An area of low pressure that has formed south of Pensacola is presently in hostile conditions for development, but this may change as the system tracks west to west-northwest over the next few days, or at least until it runs into too much land. Considering how close to land Invest 97L already is, despite just 20% NHC odds, "Lemon Odds," we have also now opened up a Lounge for this Area of Interest: Invest FIVE Edouard Lounge
Ciel

11AM ET 28 August, 2026 Update
Dolly has opened back up into an open wave, even sooner than forecast, and the final NHC Advisory on short-lived Dolly has been written. This wave will continue to be monitored for potential regeneration later in the period, much like we monitor any Invest.
Ciel



Lower Right: Tropical Storm Dolly in the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic on August 27, 2026 1930z

Earlier today, Invest 96L became our first Cape Verde tropical cyclone of the year. Cape Verde tropical cyclone, for a strong El Niño, at any rate. It barely made it, but now Tropical Storm Dolly has formed.

Conditions for Dolly's future aren't looking especially promising, and nearly all models and indeed the official NHC forecast has Dolly opening back up to a stout wave within about 2 days. Some strong blustery wind and heavy showers would still more likely than not affect much of the Antilles, regardless, starting the coming weekend and into at least early next week. After that, a few models and ensembles are warm to regeneration closer to the United States, but this portion of the extended forecast is still very speculative (See Lounge for more on this).

11AM ET (3AM HT) 27 August, 2026 Update
One of the very robust waves to exit Africa over the past week has overcome what has seemed near impossible this season to become a tropical storm, Dolly, in the Tropical Atlantic. While presently way, way out at sea, Dolly is worth monitoring for the extended range, as it may try to take advantage of possibly more favorable conditions closer to the Bahamas and/or the Gulf (Dolly has its own LOUNGE for these extended-range considerations)
Ciel

9AM ET (3AM HT) 22 August, 2026 Update

The final pass though from the third recon mission into Moke overnight found pressures had dropped within the cyclone to below 995mb, with winds possibly getting a little stronger. Almost all of the impactful weather from Moke is in its northern half because of shear. This also means that the heavy rain is being displaced to the north and will likely begin affecting the Hawaiian islands Saturday night and spread westward into early next week despite the storm center tracking well south of the islands. Winds across portions of the Big Island may reach tropical storm force, at least in gusts, but this will largely be due to a strong pressure gradient from interaction with the high pressure center to the north, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are not expected. Additional flash flooding is a very real concern.
Ciel


Original Update


Three more Areas of Interest presently in the Atlantic have NHC odds of 20% or less for development, plus one that is yet to roll off Africa with also a 20% handle. Lots of lemons out there in the Atlantic basin during this record-setting El Niño.

First up is a wave, not yet mentioned in NHC's TWO, that has a slight model-suggested chance of becoming a short-lived TD or weak storm. This one is in the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic, and is also the most tropical of the three currently in that basin. We are monitoring it in a Lounge, as it is a stout wave heading west, in the general direction of the Caribbean.

Second, a weak area of low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic well east-southeast of Bermuda. This disturbance is expected to drift west-southwest over this weekend and then turn to the north next week, avoiding land.

Third, a non-tropical low in the far northeastern Atlantic, even beyond the Azores, has some tepid model support to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. It should ultimately bring wet and blustery weather to Spain and Portugal, though far less certain that it would have a name while doing so.

Next week, yet another stout wave rolling off Africa into the far eastern Atlantic is already NHC highlighted for a slight chance of development, at 20%.

Much closer to the United States is newly-named Tropical Storm Moke in the Central Pacific. This tropical cyclone has the potential to dump additional heavy rain on to the Big Island, still recovering from a direct hit from powerful Hurricane Lala just last weekend.

4PM ET (10AM HT) 15 August, 2026 Update
Lala has become a hurricane and is also now seemingly pulling a bit right (north) of prior track, as many of the more bullish hurricane models expected. This will bring more of the most dangerous weather to the Big Island for many hours to come, and preparations to protect life and property should already be completed, ideally.
Ciel

1PM ET (7AM HT) 15 August, 2026 Update
Recon has left Hawaii, following protocol given safety and logistic considerations. However, based on radar, satellite and microwave analysis, Lala will likely soon be a hurricane, already with a ragged eye apparent.

Track has been a little left (south) of forecast and many models (esp the hurricane models). A track that avoids landfall could preclude history books, but actually lessen the possible disruption of the center tracking over the very high mountains of the Big Island.

Regardless of exact track, this is a very dangerous tropical cyclone that will undoubtedly dump tons of rain resulting in flooding and mudslides. Preps to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Ciel


1:30PM ET 14 August, 2026 Update
In the Main Development Region of the Atlantic basin, Invest 92L is approaching the Lesser Antilles today with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Development odds per NHC have dropped dramatically, now just 20%. Nonetheless, some pockets of heavy rain and winds up to 30-40 MPH in spots seems likely. Maybe not the best beach day. Behind 92L, 94L continues to have better model support for development potential and NHC still assigns it a coin-flip shot of development within the next 7 days. All in all, this historic and record-setting El Niño has drastically hampered attempts of development and/or strengthening in the Atlantic.

On the other side of the CONUS, Hawaii is facing a significant threat of serious impacts from Tropical Storm Lala, which is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity during passage very near or directly over the Big Island. Preparations on the Big Island to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. Life-threatening flooding, mudslides, winds, surge and waves are likely over the weekend.



Ciel


11:30AM ET 13, August, 2026 Update

Above: Tropical Storm Lala on approach to Hawaii. Image credit: Weathernerds.org

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii. Now Tropical Storm Lala is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as it crosses the Hawaiian island. Very heavy rain will begin to impact the Big Island tomorrow, Friday, and spread throughout the chain over the weekend, resulting in potentially life-threatening flooding and mudslides.We have a Forecast Lounge up for Lala.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is less than favorable for development and seeming to trend more and more inhospitable by the day. Invests 92L and 94L struggle in the Main Development Region and it is nowhere near certain that either one gets named.
Ciel

2:30AM ET 13, August, 2026 Update
Very challenging conditions for development abound throughout the Atlantic basin. The northernmost feature, a subtropical trof that broke off to the northeast, actually picked up the name Cristobal, and might be the saddest looking tropical storm of the year so far. But, there's still time for a challenger to take that title away. Invests 92L and 94L are trying.

92L has been a borderline TD for at least a half a day now. One could understand if NHC went ahead and numbered it. Models keep backing down on its potential, most now never strengthening it beyond a low-end tropical storm or depression.

94L is not especially organized still, despite occasionally sporting beefier convection than either 92L or Cristobal. Fewer ensemble models seem to want to develop this one now, also.

In the central Pacific, all eyes are on Storm One-C, still a "Potential Tropical Cyclone," but one that is already producing winds of tropical storm force. The expectation is that its elongated circulation with presently two vorticity maxima comes together as one and intensifies as it heads towards Hawaii, but this is still a little uncertain. Nonetheless, interests in Hawaii may want to begin paying very close attention, as even if One-C does not organize much more (low chance, but possible), heavy, flooding rains and strong winds will still be likely.
Ciel

Original Update
The Atlantic has three areas of interest this morning. The first area is new, the northern one, quickly moving east. It could develop into a short live system before it hits cooler waters. This has a 10% chance according to the National Hurricane Center.

The second area is the leading wave in the Central Atlantic is heading west with a 10% chance also, this one is less likely to develop and if it does likely to hit shear from the TUTT ahead of it keeping it from developing, those in the Caribbean will want to watch it still however for around Thursday.

The last area is east of there, south of the Cape Verde islands, with a 60% chance to develop, this one is likely the most prime candidate to develop, however, none of them have been invest tagged yet (this one may get tagged later today or tomorrow). It could be the one that slips through the shear, however more likely to miss the islands to the north. But those in the Caribbean still should watch this coming weekend to Monday if this system is weaker than expected. Bermuda also may want to watch much later for mid to late next week as it could get close. That's currently the most likely scenario right now, but it could change. Watch here or the lounge on flhurricane for a bit more speculation. Lounge thread https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...;vc=#Post116098 The general high shear environment of el nino is still there, and this system is likely to struggle to develop.

In the Central Pacific, invest CP93 has a 90% chance, and Hawaii should watch closely.

Screenshot image credit: TC-ATLAS

What is becoming quite possibly one of the strongest, if not the strongest, El Niños on record,has made it very difficult for otherwise could-be very powerful tropical cyclones in the Atlantic to level up. Both Arthur and Bertha had internal dynamics that in even just average ENSO years could easily have had them both become formidable early season hurricanes, instead came in much less intense versions of themselves. In the Pacific, things are completely different, and a number of US land locations on that side of the CONUS look to be at greater risk for impacts and maybe even direct hits this year.

We are currently tracking Hurricane Fausto, which is likely to at least indirectly swipe the northern Hawaiian islands and bring enhanced, potentially flooding rainfalls to some locations there. We have a Lounge up on this system and have allowed our Hype Scale to reflect the possibility of a US land impact for it, although this number could be coming down if current north-side-of-cone tracks continue. Recon is flying multiple flights into Fausto and this information is truly helping to improve the forecast.

Getting back to the Atlantic as we head into August, even strong El Niño years can occasionally see substantial rampups during that roughly August 20 to Sep 10 lead into climatological peak, so things may pick up later in August. Near-term, both the MJO and NAO phases are actually supportive for development in the Atlantic basin, but Chris Farley would like to have a word with them.

12:30AM CDT 23, July, 2026 Update
Bertha is the storm that won't quit. Tonight, a very powerful electrified convective mid-level vortex developed to the southwest of the apparent nascent surface center jump and we have confirmed sustained winds at an elevation of 98' up to 75 MPH so far. Whatever the exact technical classification for this stage of Bertha (something that is likely to get reviewed post-season), hurricane-force winds were recently occurring roughly 100 miles south of Louisiana.

Ciel

9PM CDT 22 July, 2026 Update
Bertha's low-level circulation center may be jumping offshore under the deep convection tonight. This could dramatically influence future track and intensity.



6PM CDT 22 July, 2026 Update
I always say never, ever write off a hearty, enduring circulation. It appears Bertha's surface circulation is coming close to one way or another being back in the Gulf. Concurrently, the mid-level circulation may also be in the process of better realigning with the surface low. Finally, shear looks to be easing up and may in fact be on the lighter side in the northwest Gulf for the remainder of the cyclone's time over water.

Is the path to hurricane truly completely closed? While not the most probable outcome, if Bertha's low-level center reemerges and/or reforms over the Gulf, which is looking increasingly likely this evening, a window to ramp up to at least strong tropical storm status could open, with time left over the water now the primary variable instead of shear. Interests along the Texas coast may want to begin paying closer attention. How things play out over the next 18 hours could make or break whether this is a breezy but mostly innocuous splash and dash event, or something that impacts a lot more like a real tropical storm.
Ciel

10AM CDT 22 July, 2026 Update
Bertha decoupled overnight in the face of ever-increasing shear, and the path to hurricane is now closed. Indeed, the tropical cyclone is now mostly a ghost swirl of intense low pressure and blustery showers with a few occasional hot towers, having had the core of deep convection as well as its mid-level circulation shoved off well to the southwest. With the upcoming track over at least portions of Louisiana now certain, weakening is by far the most likely scenario. The official NHC track that carries Bertha as a Tropical Storm all into the upper Texas coast including the Houston/Galveston area may be advertising more bark than bite, but precautions are still warranted.
Ciel

1:30AM CDT 21 July, 2026 Update
Bertha continues intensifying. A few models are back to suggesting potential for a hurricane near or just south of Louisiana and these runs are now plausible, although still not the official forecast and especially tenuous given the expected increasing shear.
Ciel

10PM CDT 20 July, 2026 Update
Now Tropical Storm Bertha continues to intensify tonight as the center has finally nestled underneath the deepest convection that is firing in the southern half of the circulation. With the center finding ways to stay even a little bit south, this keeps open the window for the cyclone to survive past Louisiana and perhaps go all the way to Texas.

In the meantime, Tropical Storm conditions are now occurring offshore and increasingly likely to occur along portions of the northern Gulf coast. With that, Tropical Storm Warnings are now being issued.
Ciel

12PM EDT 20 July, 2026 Update
Tropical Depression Two: The struggle is real. Northeasterly shear has overtaken dry air as the leading cause of the depression's inability to get named. Models have dramatically peddled back on their bullish outlooks and most now favor a low/mid-range tropical storm tracking into Louisiana or thereabouts, followed by an eventual demise over land.

There is a modest but decreasing chance that the cyclone remains more offshore and can avail itself of the very warm gulf waters, so a stronger system that makes it further west is still a possibility, but no longer the probability. More details on this can be found in the Lounge.
Ciel

11AM EDT 19 July, 2026 Update
Invest 91L has become Tropical Depression Two and NHC Advisories have begun.
Ciel

3:00AM EDT 19 July, 2026 Update

Tonight, Invest 91L now has somewhat of a surface circulation and also pressures at the surface are falling. However, the system lacks sufficient and organized deep convection as it is battling dry air and shear from an upper-level low impinging from the north. Nonetheless, it has more than a few avenues for tropical cyclone genesis to occur over the next 6-72 hours, and is more likely than not to develop. The next name on the list in 2026 is Bertha.

As far as track is concerned, earlier and stronger development could favor continued jogs ~ if not an outright persistent course ~ to the west. This could ultimately put Texas and/or northeastern Mexico on play. A somewhat delayed and/or weaker development would probably tend to favor a track heading as far east as Florida's Big Bend to as far west as the upper Texas gulf coast.

Recon will help and is scheduled to start heading in later today.
Ciel

12:45PM EDT 18 July, 2026 Update
The Area of Interest we have been tracking in the Gulf has been Invest tagged, and is now being monitored as Invest 91L. Recon has been tasked to begin flying in on Sunday. There are some indications that the environment for development may now be going up, perhaps even quite a bit overnight tonight, and so they may encounter a closed surface low when they get in there tomorrow.

Modeling has been a little vague, but with a more coherent system coming together and especially with recon scheduled to go in, should start being more reliable soon. Interests all along and in the Gulf may want to follow along with us on this one. Lots more modeling data, analysis and speculation can be found in the Lounge.
-Ciel

Original Update
We are now closely monitoring two systems that while still officially listed as having "slight" chances for development, are already producing heavy weather.

The first, and closest to home, is an area of closed low pressure aloft that is building down towards the surface, not yet Invest-tagged,
but we already have a Forecast Lounge up on this one:



Eastern Gulf Low Forecast Lounge (INVEST 91L)

The second is a stout tropical wave now located south of the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic, but encountering cooler waters and stable air.