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#Beryl now pushing inland after landfall near Matagorda. Flooding, surge, wind damage and tornadoes continue.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 0 (Beryl) , Major: 313 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 313 (Idalia) Major: 313 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#39 10:00 am EDT
28.6N 96.0W
Wind: 80MPH
Pres: 979mb
Moving:
N at 12 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4571
Loc: Orlando, FL
Colin Forecast Lounge
      Sun Aug 01 2010 08:42 AM

Here is the place to discuss long range models, and guesses regarding 91L.

RIght now a lot of people may feel inclined to fall back to the European model, which suggests the system moving through the northeast Caribbean and then through the Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Which is possible, but I'm not going to buy the Euro model on this system, it's a lot further east than the others and the environment is in a situation that the European model really doesn't handle quite as well.

In short, I wouldn't rely on it being close to correct right now that far out.

It does make the system worth watching for the east coast and Florida, and especially the Northeastern Caribbean.

Why am I thinking Florida right now? A possibly key may be the presence of two upper ridges, one west of Bermuda and another over the southern plain states. If a weakness exists offshore the Carolinas, that would be what drags the wave more northerly, and if it misses the northeastern Caribbean, would be the cause. What's not happening there would likely be enough to continue to pull it out to sea. What happens after that is the weakness gets plugged, which completes the ridge and generally drags it more westward, which is why those in Florida would want to watch it. Chances for a gulf impact are low currently, but not non-existent.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Colin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 01 2010 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2010 06:36 AM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Tue Aug 03 2010 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 03 2010 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2010 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 03 2010 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Tue Aug 03 2010 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 03 2010 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge WesnWylie   Tue Aug 03 2010 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 03 2010 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge WesnWylie   Tue Aug 03 2010 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 03 2010 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Colin Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Tue Aug 03 2010 09:53 AM
. * * Re: 91L Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Sun Aug 01 2010 02:45 PM
. * * Re: 91L Forecast Lounge B.C.Francis   Sun Aug 01 2010 03:15 PM
. * * Re: 91L Forecast Lounge WesnWylie   Sun Aug 01 2010 04:38 PM
. * * Re: 91L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 01 2010 05:14 PM
. * * Re: 91L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 01 2010 06:05 PM
. * * Re: 91L Forecast Lounge WesnWylie   Mon Aug 02 2010 03:02 PM
. * * Re: 91L Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Aug 02 2010 04:59 PM

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