cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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EMILY Lounge
Mon Jul 31 2017 05:56 AM
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A well-defined, non-tropical area of low pressure that developed off of a rare summer cold front dropping into the Gulf has been showing some signs of acquiring sub-tropical to tropical characteristics, and as of July 31 07z has NHC odds of 40% now (up from 30% last night).
There are a few things that can happen here.
The official expectation is for 98L to cross Florida with an implicit 60% chance of not developing. Alternatively, it may actually miss the exit, and linger in the eastern Gulf a while - to sit and spin down, or sit and cook, or just sit in place, until finding a new path out. The main point being, if 98L does not fly out the exit hatch laid down for it by its parent trof, it's likely to end up in a COL for a bit, which would open 98L up to those other possibilities.
Most models strongly suggest that 98L will, however, cross central Florida as some kind of compact Low - and at near-gale to storm-force intensity. This is a small system, and so it is possible that it could affect a relatively small area with even greater impact, perhaps similar to how October 2011's Invest 93L did.
As of 31/1000Z, Invest 98L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression SIX, and the title has been updated accordingly. And at 1200,
TD was named, Emily. - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jul 31 2017 11:56 AM)
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