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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#29 9:00 am EDT
26.3N 91.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Nnw at 3 mph
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Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L)
      Wed Jul 19 2023 04:58 PM

12z GFS shows a weak system crossing through the Caribbean. GFS ensembles are not as enthusiastic about it as earlier runs.
12z CMC shows an organized wave/system for the first time with this wave, and gets it into the Caribbean.
12z Icon keeps it weak, but gets the system north of the Caribbean
12z euro keeps it weak through the Caribbean
12z Euro Ensembles are more spread out, several develop it into a hurricane (especially if the system stays north of the Caribbean)

20% chance of development seems good. Worth watching for the trends in the models and if things persist or not. GFS has been swinging wildly between north and Caribbean tracks.

Edited by MikeC (Thu Jul 20 2023 08:30 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) CFHCAdministrator Wed Jul 19 2023 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 21 2023 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) IsoFlame   Fri Jul 21 2023 03:08 PM

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