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#Beryl now a Hurricane with 75mph. Now Forecast to be a 120mph Major Hurricane near the Windwards on Monday. Hurricane Warnings now up for Barbados, Watches for other areas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#5 10:00 pm EDT
10.1N 49.3W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 992mb
Moving:
W at 22 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Sean Lounge
      Wed Oct 11 2023 10:14 PM

The NHC official forecast for Sean weakens the already struggling system to a remnant low by Monday afternoon (Oct 16th).

We are starting this Lounge in part because of this official forecast, as well as model guidance suggesting that a hobbled Sean or open wave makes it further west and has an opportunity to encounter what may become a more favorable environment in or near the Caribbean sometime next week. A plurality of global model ensembles suggest that a region bounded by just east of the Caribbean to the east to the Bay of Campeche to the west should be conducive for tropical cyclone development and/or intensification during the back half of October.

The other reason for this Lounge is out of an abundance of caution and interest given that we simply do not have much to work with in the way of any analog seasons with a strong El Niño in the Pacific alongside a highly anomalously warm Atlantic.


Some 18z Sean runs from the Hurricane models:

HWRF End of run: Sean is located near 15N 52.5W as a 1011mb open wave at 0z Oct 17
HMON End of run: Sean is located near 16.75N 49.9W as a 1010mb open wave at 0z Oct 17
HAFS-A End of run: Sean is located near 17N 54W as a 1005mb sharp wave with possibly a small closed low at 0z Oct 17
HAFS-B End of run: Sean is located near 18.5N 52.25W as an open wave at 0z Oct 17

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* Sean Lounge cieldumort Wed Oct 11 2023 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Sean Lounge cieldumort   Thu Oct 12 2023 05:10 PM

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