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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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vpbob21
Weather Guru


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Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico
      Sun Aug 30 2009 04:19 AM

Jimena has spun up in a hurry in the E. Pac., going from a TD at 0300 UTC Sat. to a 90 knot hurricane at the same time Sunday. It is conservatively progged to become a 125 kt. Cat. 4 storm in 36 hours.

The track forecast is interesting. The NHC forecasts Jimena to stay offshore of Baja, but I have my doubts on that. I think they are putting too much weight on the global models that have the storm initiated too weak. The GFDL and the HWRF seem to have a better handle on the system. The GFDL might be too far east, taking it north almost immediately and taking it into Mexico passing close to Mazatlan. The HWRF might be a good compromise, taking it just east of Baja into the Gulf of California and into Mexico near Los Mochis. Baja and the Mexican coast will really have to watch this one. It could bring some good rains into the Southwest by midweek.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico vpbob21 Sun Aug 30 2009 04:19 AM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico JoshuaK   Mon Aug 31 2009 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico NickH   Mon Aug 31 2009 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico Ed in Va   Mon Aug 31 2009 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico JoshuaK   Fri Sep 04 2009 04:39 AM
. * * Re: Dangerous Jimena threatening Baja / Western Mexico JoshuaK   Mon Aug 31 2009 04:46 AM

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