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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Off the Carolinas
      Sun Jul 16 2006 03:13 AM

Surface low pressure may be attempting to slowly form within a persistent area of convection flaring-up along an old frontal boundary, now essentially a trof, that is sitting over the Gulf Stream this weekend. Shear is a bit high, and the warmest waters won't last as it may readily slide past the Stream. However, something to watch that is not getting any notice at the moment from NHC - which frankly surprises me a little bit, given it's close proximity to land. Worth keeping an eye on, IMHO.



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* Off the Carolinas cieldumort Sun Jul 16 2006 03:13 AM

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