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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
Area of Interest: Invest 95L
      Sun Aug 19 2012 06:14 PM

A convectively active surface trough which includes some of the remnant circulation of (former) Helene has become a little better defined over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico today. This feature has been tagged as Invest 95L.

95L is in a marginally favorable environment for further organization, currently centered roughly around 21.7N 98.1W. Movement is nearly stationary, or drifting on and offshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure within 95L is a relatively low 1005mb, and maximum sustained winds are running about 20 knots, but scatterometer measurements suggests that much higher gusts are occurring.

NHC currently gives this disturbance a 20% chance of becoming a numbered tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Area of Interest: Invest 95L cieldumort Sun Aug 19 2012 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Invest 95L danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 19 2012 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest: Invest 95L danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 19 2012 11:28 PM

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