Hurricane Frances in the Evening

10pm
A few of the models trended right, but the consensus still keeps it on track currently. More to come at 11PM.

Original Update
Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!

The 5PM National Hurricane Center update is out, and they have kept the track similar to what they had earlier, which is forcing hard decisions for evacuation orders.

The Florida State Superensemble model still puts the storm through Florida, while two others GFL and GFDL slow it down and turn it more northward. So, unfortunately, confidence in the track is still low. Watches aren't up for Florida yet, but I imagine they would be by 11PM tonight. It is important to note that most of the models still do take it in across Florida.

Image thanks to Skeetobite

How strong the current ridge remains is what may or may not drive Frances inward across Florida. Time will tell, and fluctuations in intensity may happen. 11PM will be telling.

Some other notes include a possible tightening up of the windfield, as found by recon, and perhaps a slight elongation on satellite imagery.

County By County Info: (Updated as received.. in alpha order-- click on county name for County EM website) Updated: 5:12PM
Please use Local Media for the absolute latest information!
Brevard: Brevard County will issue a Mandatory evacuation beginning 2 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 2, for the following areas:

* Barrier Islands, including Merritt Island
* Mobile, manufactured homes countywide
* All primary evacuation shelters (listed in the phone book, page 55) will open at 2 p.m. Thursday Sept. 2

Indian River: Shelters will be opened at noon tomorrow, but evacuation out of Florida may be the better answer. Mandatory evacuations for the barrier island and mobile homes will occur tomorrow beginning at noon. Limited shelters are available because of the intense winds. We will have routes for evacuation tomorrow. Remember, the entire east coast of Florida is going to evacuate because of this storm. School is closed Thursday and Friday. A list of shelters will be available in the morning.
Flagler:
A voluntary evacuation of the area east of I-95, mobile homes and homes in flood prone and low lying areas in Flagler County will go into effect at noon Thursday.
Lake:: School Closed Friday
Martin: plans to urge up to 7,500 residents to evacuate low-lying areas starting at noon tomorrow.
Orange: School Closed Friday
Osceola: School Closed Friday
Palm Beach: Mandatory Evacuations for Barrier Islands and lowlying areas begin tomorrow 2PM.. some may start earlier. School half day Thursday, closed Friday
Seminole: School Closed Friday
St. Lucie: Click link for updates. Announcements tomorrow AM.
Volusia: Community college and public schools are closed Thursday and Friday.
Request for info (With source) for these type of announcements!
Please listen to local media for updated information on these areas.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)

General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US