Franklin, the Little Storm that Could

3:30pm Update

Franklin continues to become better organized, despite the central pressure remaining relatively high with the system. Remember that each storm and its environment are unique; a hurricane can form with a relatively high pressure if it is embedded in such an environment itself. The storm has the potential to become a hurricane later tonight or on Sunday.

Meanwhile, TD 7 has formed in the Bay of Campeche, with 30mph winds. The first full advisory package will be issued on the disturbance at 5p ET, with tropical storm watches likely for the Mexican coastline north of Punta El Lagarto. This system has the potential to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall in the next day or so; if it does so, it will be named Gert.

Original Update

Franklin is a small storm, nearly overshadowed by the western Caribbean disturbance earlier, it has remained around to confound.

The pattern around the storm has kept it at low Tropical Storm strength this entire time, and the steering around it still suggests it will head out to sea. However, if it holds off where it is for a while it will likely get split. With the lower level part shooting off to the northeast while the higher clouds hang where they are now, effectively splitting the system vertically. This would destroy itself as a tropical system.

It's still moving around, and the bamm models still want to take it back, while everything else shoots it off to sea. Because of the shearing going on in the system, it's becomeing difficult to track where Franklin will go and what franklin will be when it gets there. (Either continuing as a tropical storm, or falling apart)

We'll continue to watch it over the weekend.

The Caribbean System in now around the Yucatan, and will eventually move back into the Gulf. At that time it has a window to strengthen. So we're watching that too.

Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Google Map of Franklin plotted along side Jeanne from Last Year
Google Map of Franklin And Erin (1995)

Edited by Clark (Sat Jul 23 2005 07:43 PM)

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