TS Stan and Other Basin Activity

2AM Tuesday Update
Stan is rapidly intensifying this evening, not entirely unexpected given the favorable conditions aloft and in the Bay of Campeche, the organization of the storm, and the high probability of rapid intensification predicted by the SHIPS model. Stan is now forecast to make landfall in about 36hr as a 105mph category 2 hurricane. More in the morning.

9AM Monday 3.October.2005
The wave near the Bahamas (92L) is being watched for future development. More to come tonight on this.

From Ed Dunham:

A tropical wave is interacting with a trough of low pressure to the east of the Bahamas and the system is slowly becoming better organized as it drifts westward.

Wind shear to the north of the system is forecast to slowly relax by Tuesday evening and allow for some additional development of this large area of showers and thunderstorms. Although still not a sure thing, it is possible that
this area will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Movement should be to the west and eventually northwest toward Florida. Even if the system does not fully develop, almost all of the Florida peninsula can expect a prolonged period of showers - some of them heavy - and gusty winds for the rest of the week. Shower activity should increase Tuesday evening through Friday and total rainfall could be significant before this period of unsettled weather finally ends.

At 29C, sea surface temperatures are still warm enough to support tropical cyclone development - the next name on the list for this busy season is Tammy. The last year to reach this high into the alphabet was 1995, with Hurricane Tanya. The 1995 storm, Tanya formed in late October.

Original Update
Early this Sunday morning TD 20 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Stan - the eighteenth named storm of this highly active Atlantic season. Stan was upgraded just before he made landfall south of Tulum on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico and he is now moving westward across the Yucatan - and he has probably weakened to a Tropical Depression at this time.

Stan is expexted to continue westward across the Yucatan and emerge into the Bay of Campeche by Monday Morning. Movement should continue to the west and eventually west southwest with landfall along the east central Mexican coast. Current projections intensify the storm to hurricane strength prior to landfall, however, modest wind shear exists across the Yucatan and the southern Gulf of Mexico so attaining hurricane strength is still questionable.

Stan

Tropical Depression 19 in the far eastern Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands continues to move slowly northward into increasing westerly shear. There is a small chance that this system could attain tropical storm strength before it weakens and dissipates in a few days - but its a very small chance since the wind shear to the north of the system is quite strong.

An area of gathering convection has flared up along a trough axis near 24.5N 70W as a tropical wave interacts with a stationary upper level low northeast of the southern Bahamas. The convection is currently parked in an area of light shear, so some slow development is possible over the next few days.

A tropical low near 12N 42W at 02/12Z is moving to the west northwest with convection displaced to the south. Because of a somewhat hostile upper air environment, development of this area, if any, will be slow.

If you use the MJO for guidance, the entire basin is about to settle into a quieter period for the next two or three weeks. I'd expect another final effort at activity from about 20 October through 10 November - perhaps another one or two storms before this hectic season comes to a much welcomed close.
ED

TS Stan

Animated model plot of TS Stan

92L

Edited by Clark (Tue Oct 04 2005 06:15 AM)

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