MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Dean Continues
Sat Aug 18 2007 03:06 PM
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11 PM EDT 18 August Update
Dean has weakened in windspeed, but lowered in pressure, so Dean is reorganizing itself. And windspeed should catch up by it tomorrow. There is a very good chance that Dean will be a category 5 system as it approaches Jamaica.
The track has actually gone further left (or west) than previously thought, and the Official Forecast takes it along the Southern part of Jamaica. The windfield is very large with the storm. Jamaica will start seeing the first of Dean overnight, with the eye reaching the island in about 18 hours.
5PM EDT 18 August Update
Dean's forecast remains about the same as before, if not a little southward. Those in the cone of error, especially further out should still watch it. Those north of the cone should be aware and keep up with Dean is doing, but chances are falling that something would happen there.
Intensity is held at the same level, but it appears that it's finishing up it's first eyewall replacement cycle and may get another run of intensification tonight. There are a few other factors (like hati) that may keep it from gaining too much, but it has plenty going for it.
Jamaica, be strong.
3PM EDT 18 August Update
Dean is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle now, with double (perhaps triple) eyewalls as it reorganizes itself, this unfortunately gives it time to recover from it by the time it gets to Jamaica. The land interaction with Hati may also slow reorganization, or even help to weaken it a bit, but it won't have too great an affect on the system.
The forecast track from 11 seems dead on, and there is no current reason to doubt the track, bad news for Jamaica. The official forecast takes the center of Hurricane Dean directly over Kingston Jamaica and through the entire island.
Beyond that, it appears that the Mexcian landfall is the most probable (Perhaps a clip of the Yucatan), followed by a south Texas hit. Other areas in the gulf have very little chance of seeing something from Dean at this time.
Do you have your own take on what Dean will do? Let us know here.
Discuss preparation, damage reports, and general Island Information here
More to come later, recon aircraft is still flying around in the storm.
Original Update
Hurricane Dean remains a strong Category 4 storm as it moves west northwest through the Caribbean. Hurricane Warnings are up for Jamaica and Hati, and those there should be done preparing, as they will feel the worst of the storm tomorrow.
The future track is fairly consistently moving it slightly north of due west into the Yucatan, however the GFDL still insists on a more northerly track, and the storm has moved slightly more north than expected, so there is still reason to watch this system in the Gulf. This afternoon, night and tomorrow is the critical time for many of these model runs. The GFS and other models have been remarkably consistent ant for days now, moving the storm into Northern Mexico. Northern Mexico is the most likely scenario.
There were initialization problems with the wildcard upper level low over Florida, which along with a high west of it, is probably the single biggest concern with the model tracks right now. We'll be watching it to see how the storm progresses throughout the day, and how the forward speed changes.
Intensity of Dean will fluctuate down and up based on all sorts of things, look for dry air, eyewall replacement cycles, and land interaction to cause weakening, and warmer sea surface temperatures to the west of the system to help it gain more intensity.
More to come soon.
Event Related Links:
Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Other
Jamaican Webcam recording... Treasure Beach
Jim Williams will be doing a live show on Dean tonight at hurricane city (8PM EDT)
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
{{Radarlink|jua|San Juan, Puerto Rico}}
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Southern Cuba Radar (Has Jamaica partially in range
Cuban Radar Mosaic (flhurricane long term recording of this radar)
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Dean|04|4|2007|1|Hurricane Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic)}}
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