MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast
Fri Aug 06 2010 10:42 AM
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Update - Sunday - August 8, 2010 - 11AM EDT
With a center that has elongated and a poor convective structure, Colin has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. At 11AM Colin was almost due west of Bermuda and heading north at 10 knots with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Highest winds observed on Bermuda were sustained at 30mph a couple of hours ago and the sea level pressure has been rising at Bermuda since 5AM EDT. Colin is likely to become an open wave long before it gets absorbed by a trough off the east coast.
Invest 93L in the Central Atlantic still has fairly good structure but only a small area of convection to its north and east. At 08/15Z the system was located at 22.9N 44.7W and it was moving to the west northwest to northwest at 11 knots. The chances for additional development are good, however the process will be slow given the diminishing SAL area that it is moving through.
A new system, Invest 94L, was located off the Florida east coast near 30.3N 78.6W at 08/12Z. The system is expected to move generally westward across the peninsula and into the northern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days. Sustained winds initially set at 25 knots and pressure is 1011MB.
Yet another wave, with minimal convection at the moment, was located in the eastern Caribbean Sea near 13.5N 65W at 08/16Z. This system has the potential for some future development as it moves to the west. Windshear is quite light across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
ED
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{StormLinks|93L|93|5|2010|3|93L}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|6|2010|1|94L}}
{{StormCarib}}
Update - Saturday - August 7, 2010 - 11AM EDT
Although the wind shear has decreased considerably, for a tropical storm Colin is a disorganized mess. The center of the minimal TS is exposed again with all of the unstructured convection displaced to the east and southeast. Colin has unexpectedly become stationary - stuck in an area of negligible winds (a COL area) between two upper level lows.
With a trough amplifying over the southeastern U.S., increasing southwesterly winds should eventually shove Colin off to the northeast. With less wind shear to contend with for the next 18 to 24 hours, some modest improvement in structure and increase in intensity is still possible - so a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda.
ED
Original Post
Tropical Storm Colin looks more ragged this morning and may not hold Tropical Storm status long, the center is separate from the convection again, as it moves rapidly northwest. It is expected to miss Bermuda to the west, so that the island will see some effects from the storm.
Current Weather at Hamilton, Bermuda
Colin will likely then head toward the northeast as an extratropical system, perhaps clipping far eastern Newfoundland in Canada.
The area in the East Atlantic atlantic is being pushed northward and will likely stay well out to sea, if it develops it likely won't last long.
Beyond that there is nothing else, 92L is no longer being tracked. Anything else may not come until mid to late next week.
Bermuda Radar
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