MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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June Likely to be Quiet in the Atlantic
Sun Jun 12 2011 11:19 AM
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The month of June looks to be fairly quiet this year, with not much on the horizon, and one of the signals we watch out for is the Madden Julian Oscillation (Aka MJO), and right now the signals are very weak. Usually in June, the regions to watch out or are the Western Caribbean, and sometimes further east. Occasionally something in the bay of Campeche will form, however there is no reliable sign that anything will occur there.
Into July things start to change, and it becomes more worthwhile to expand the areas you watch closely, and mid to late August is usually when things really start to come together in the tropical Atlantic.
During June the updates will be less frequent, unless something does occur. But in all likelihood there won't be much to talk about this month.
Parts of Florida and northern Gulf coasts have been dealing with very large drought problems this year, and the NWS Melbourne recently shared a graphic that explains this well (Source is from the Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service).
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
Former NWS Meteorologist Jim Lushine has made the connection in the past, and it boils down to it usually signals a stronger Bermuda high in the west for the season which increases the chances (by about 50-60% from a weak Bermuda High year) for storms that form in the Atlantic to allow closer approach to Florida, but not necessarily that it will occur, the area can shift back east by August which would lower chances again.
In the East Pacific, there is Adrian (Just weakened back to a Tropical Depression), which is being discussed Here.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 12 2011 02:41 PM)
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