Hurricane Beryl Forms Windward Islands Should be on Alert

11:20AM EDT 1 July 20214 Update
Beryl has made landfall on Carriacou Island as a still-intensifying upper-end Cat 4 with 150 MPH maximum sustained winds, still increasing, and central pressure of 950mb, still falling. It is possible that Beryl attains Cat 5 while still raking the southern Windwards this afternoon.
Ciel

8:00AM EDT 1 July 20214 Update
Recon confirms what satellite and radar have been suggesting. Beryl is back up to Category 4 with 130MPH winds, reintensifying into initial landfall somewhere around Grenada.

Grenada and the Grenadines are about to take a direct hit of this rare Major Hurricane. Preps to protect life should be rushed to completion.
Ciel

5:00PM EDT 30 June 20214 Update
Category 4 Beryl holding its own and expected to begin bringing life-threatening and catastrophic weather late tonight and Monday, as Beryl is expected to remain a Major Category 4 over the Windwards.

Elsewhere, Invest 94L has become our third official Tropical Cyclone of the year and is forecast to intensify into a Tropical Storm later this evening in the extreme southwestern Guf of Mexico.

Ciel

4:00PM EDT 30 June 20214 Update
Recon has been flying Invest 94L today and NHC Advisories will likely be coming shortly.
Ciel

11:35AM EDT 30 June 20214 Update
Recon's most recent passes are finding surface winds that would support an update to Cat 4 shortly. If verified, once again this would be yet another "ahead of schedule" intensification.

Beryl may very well be making a run for Category 5 prior to reaching the Windwards. Those in its path should be rushing preparations to protect life and property. Catastrophic impacts may arrive within the next 18-24 hours.
Ciel

6:00AM EDT 30 June 20214 Update
Beryl is now forecast to become a Category 4 Hurricane when it crosses the Windwards islands, with the most direct impacts in the hurricane warning area, and particularly the Grenadine.

A serious situation is setting up for parts of these islands, those there should rush preparations as today is the last full day to get them complete.

Beyond this those in the cone should be monitoring, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. It is forecast to weaken somewhat once it hits shear in the Caribbean, but still forecast to be a hurricane then. Those in the Yucatan Peninsula also need to watch.

Also the area east of Beryl is now being tracked as invest 96L with a 70% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

94L has entered the Bay of Campeche and has a 50% chance to develop.

Recon is nearing Beryl and will have reports soon on just how strong it is, it may even be a major already.

8:30PM EDT 29 June 20214 Update
Beryl is now up to an 80 MPH hurricane and
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for Martinique and Tobago.
Hurricane Warnings now join Barbados for St. Lucia. and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands and Grenada.

4:30PM EDT 29 June 20214 Update
Tropical Storm Beryl is now Hurricane Beryl and forecast to become a major hurricane with 120mph winds near the Windward islands. Hurricane Warnings are now up for Barbados. This is the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June on record, breaking the old record set in 1933 by the 1933 "Trinidad Hurricane".

11AM EDT 29 June 20214 Update
Tropical Storm Beryl is now up to a 65mph storm and now forecast to become a Major hurricane as is crosses the Windward islands on Monday.

Hurricane watches are now up for Barbados, St. Lucia , St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Trinidad..

Tropical Storm Watches are up for Tobago and Martinique. .

Beyond this the track shifted a little left, but those in the cone, particularly Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should watch this system closely.

8AM EDT 28 June 20214 Update
Tropical Storm Beryl has strengthened into a 60mph Tropical storm, and expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.

Because of this Hurricane watches are up for Barbados. Other hurricane watches for islands west of Barbados may be issued later today.

For Barbados conditions likely will begin to deteriorate Sunday night and the closet approach during the day Monday. Beyond wind, extreme amounts of rainfall 3 to 6 inches (maybe more localized) in some areas. And some surge from 2 to 4 feet, especially on the eastern facing sides of the islands for those areas in or the right of the eye.

The area east of Beryl now has a 60% chance to develop, and those in the same islands as Beryl should continue to monitor that as well. Chris is the next name on the list. Also 94L has a chance to develop once in the Bay of Campeche, so Mexico should watch that.

Beryl is the strongest June tropical storm this far east in the tropical Atlantic on record. Recon is staged at St. Croix and will fly into Beryl tomorrow.

11:PM EDT 28 June 20214 Update
Tropical Storm beryl has formed from Tropical Depression Two . No watches or warnings for the islands have been issued yet, but likely will tomorrow. Those in the Windward islands of the Caribbean should be watching this system closely for Monday.

Beyond that the cone takes it toward Jamaica by Wednesday, but anyone along or near the cone should be keeping up with this system.

6:45PM EDT 28 June 20214 Update
In addition to newly-designated TD TWO east of the Windwards, there are additional features in the Atlantic that are showing continued model support for development, which is not surprising given the unseasonably very favorable background state of much of the basin.

Closest to land already, we have now started a Lounge on Invest 94L in the northwest Caribbean 94L Forecast Lounge . Then behind TD TWO, we are also monitoring two additional robust waves. Again, much more remiscent of the heart of a hurricane season than June or July.
Ciel

Original Update
Tropical Depression Two forms east of the Windward islands. Watches are likely for parts of the Windward islands overnight for Monday as a hurricane is forecast to arrive there then. Beyond that, those in the cone should pay close attention.

It's likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl tonight or early tomorrow.

{{StormLinks|Beryl|02|2|2024|Two|Beryl}}
Beryl Lounge

{{StormLinks|THREEl|03|3|2024|Three|TD THREE}}

{{StormLinks|96l|96|4|2024|96|lnvest 96L}}

{{StormCarib}}

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jul 01 2024 11:19 AM)

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