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Alberto moving into Mexico, but large windfield causing surge flooding along Texas Coast. Also Invest 92L now being tracked east of the Bahamas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Idalia) , Major: 295 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 295 (Idalia) Major: 295 (Idalia)
TS Alberto
ADV#11 10:00 am EDT
22.3N 97.3W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 993mb
Moving:
W at 13 mph
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Analysis
      Sat Jul 14 2007 10:07 PM

Some of the usual speculation on the various tropical waves that are crossing the pond, but they are all entrenched in the ITCZ - and the ITCZ itself is still too far to the south. Although the MJO has shifted positive, it takes changes in other parameters before a TD can boil up. Scottsvb's analysis on the Main Page article seems realistic - nothing of consequence for awhile yet. When any model generates something within the ITCZ itself, I tend to ignore it. The current waves are staying well south and seem to be stuck on a track that takes them into northern South America. If you want to watch a long shot, I'd monitor the wave at 15N 3W (at 14/18Z) over western Africa - it should move off the west African coast at a slightly higher latitude in a few days.
Cheers,
ED

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* Analysis Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Jul 14 2007 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Analysis ftlaudbob   Sun Jul 15 2007 02:09 AM

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