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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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BullitNutz
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Posts: 46
Could Emily go the same way as Charley?
      Wed Jul 13 2005 11:17 AM

http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2004s3-2005s5

I was taking a look, comparing storm after storm with Emily, and I got as far back as Charley when I realized that although Charley was 'born' a bit West of Emily, it was nearly at the same latitude (Charley = 11.7N, Emily = 11.1N) of Emily's current position.

Any insight or historical data as to the conditions of the area at the time of Charley as opposed to Emily? Could Emily take this route, or are conditions so different that there's little to no chance of Emily making a turn towards the North?

EDIT:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/EMILY_graphics.shtml
and
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARLEY_graphics.shtml

These are the forecast tracks (animation) for Emily and Charley, respectively. I opened the two in tabs (yay firefox) and had them paused on Charley's first forecast track and Emily's most recent track.

Taking into account the disparity between their respective times of season, I think there might be a possibility for Emily to take a more Northerly course in the next couple days, culminating in a Florida impact. I eyeballed it a bit, took into account the notable vigor of this year's season, and came up with this guess. I'd like to see some more knowledgeable people weigh in on this. How different are the conditions aloft with these two storms?

Edited by BullitNutz (Wed Jul 13 2005 12:01 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Could Emily go the same way as Charley? BullitNutz Wed Jul 13 2005 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:31 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? Clark   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:04 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 14 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Jul 14 2005 05:34 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? BullitNutz   Thu Jul 14 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? RedingtonBeachGuy   Thu Jul 14 2005 09:29 PM

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