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Modeled CAG/TC with now 60% NHC odds within 7 days. Entire NW Carib & Gulf should monitor for potential hurricane development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Francine) , Major: 387 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 46 (Debby) Major: 387 (Idalia)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
22L Lounge
      Fri Nov 10 2023 08:43 AM

Seems like the GFS has been calling for a TC to develop in the western Caribbean Sea for over a month, now the NHC 7-day tropical weather outlook mentions the possibility:

A broad area of low pressure could form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The model-forecast area of broad low pressure in the western Caribbean has materialized and is now being tracked as an Invest, 98L, and the title has been updated accordingly
- Ciel 2023-11-15 18:00z

TWENTY-TWO 11-16-23 18:00z - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Nov 16 2023 03:15 PM)

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* 22L Lounge IsoFlame Fri Nov 10 2023 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Broad area of low pressure developing next week in the SW Caribbean IsoFlame   Mon Nov 13 2023 09:05 AM

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