Fri Aug 19 2011 03:48 PM
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge

The 12Z Long range models still are consistently not good. Both the GFS and 12Z Euro models show Florida landfall Friday/Saturday of next week. (GFS toward the panhandle, Euro toward south Florida and through Orlando and out north by Jacksonville)

The system has been organizing throughout the day, and has about a 40% chance to form in the next two days.

To counter this though, other models take it more southerly/westerly, and over Hispaniola again, which could destroy it (ala Emily). However, unlike Emily, 97L does not have the duality problem, and generally has better conditions ahead of it.

In short, the persistence of two of the more reliable model trends (that so far have been doing well on initialization of this system) toward Florida and the Gulf continues, and it should be watched extremely closely. This time in August is the prime time for hurricane formation, and the odds do favor a landfall somewhere in Florida or the northern Gulf coasts. When this system eventually forms into a named system, I would keep tabs on it daily.

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