Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 PM
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge

Dry air NE, NW and SW of the system has cleared out the cirrus shield - and discloses a common theme this season, i.e., the low-level center is outrunning the MLC and is displaced to the southwest of the MLC. It should be noted that the LLC is also rather weak. I'm basing this on the 00Z NHC position coordinates of 13.9N 51.8W - but with a weak circulation and IR imagery its a difficult challenge. General movement based on coordinate history is WNW but without a good LLC fix, the movement could still be to the west.

Here is the Recon schedule for tomorrow with fixes at 18Z and 21/00Z.
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 20/1615Z
D. 15.3N 57.5W
E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL DERESSION EIGHT
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 21/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 20/2015Z
D. 17.0N 88.00W
E. 20/2330Z TO 21/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON WHAT IS NOW THE SUSPECT
AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AT 21/1200Z.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR THE
SAME SYSTEM AT 22/0000Z.

ED



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