craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 21 2015 04:37 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Lounge

Quote:

So what are the chances Danny stays north of the Islands and remains slightly intact, like the GFDL is indicating? It does seem to be tracking a little north of the NHC projection.




Hurricane models have come a long way with the OFCL NHC track verifying in the 90% (educated guess) range in the short term (3 days). So if you look at the cone right now at three days out skirting the NE Islands puts you approximately in the top third of the Cone. So 33.3% +/- 5% (for the 90% assumed verification) of 100% puts you around a 28.3% to 38.3% chance of Danny moving North of the Islands at day three. That is about as unscientific of an analysis as you will get on this site. Trust the three day cone.
We will have to see what is left of Danny after running the shear gauntlet and if he has to navigate the Cordillera Central in the Dominican Republic you can say goodbye -- that mountain range is 10,000'.



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