cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 17 2016 11:22 PM
Re: Karl

Quote:

So Karl looks like a fish spinner based on long range models, however it seems like it will make it's poleward bend at a slightly unusual longitude.

Is the Bermuda high displaced significantly to the east? I would have expected to see Karl get caught under the B.H. around day 5, bend more westerly, and resulting in a situation similar to the 1992 "A" storm.

In this case, nothing is guiding it westward as I'd expect. Anyone care to offer thoughts?




As seen in the ECMWF run from 12z today, most models are picking up on a break in the ridge created by a shortwave exiting Canada around 168 hours out, with a little extra kicker from whatever is left of Julia (the main player being the potent shortwave digging south as it exits Canada).




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