cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 01 2016 03:17 AM
Hur Nicole Lounge



The wave pouch originally associated with the tropical wave that became Matthew, P39L, has hitched a ride with another easterly wave, and an area of low pressure has been forming for several days now. This feature has just been added to the NHC TWO and given 20% odds of developing within 5 days into a depression or named storm.

While likely to stay out to sea if it forms, this feature could become instrumental in the future track of Matthew. Off and on for a couple of days the 'hot' CMC and a few others have been advertising the possibility of this wave developing... most recently today's 0z run of the ECMWF now develops this system as well .. and the CMC and a few others find it assisting in opening up an escape route for Matthew to follow out to sea once he has moved north out of the Caribbean.

As of 3AM AST Oct 1, this wave extends from around a 1010mb low which is located just north of 14N 50W, out to to about 23N 53W, and has been moving WNW at roughly 12 knots, but recently appears to be slowing and making a turn more to the north.

While maximum sustained winds are close to tropical storm force, upper level winds are incredibly unfavorable for near-term development into a tropical cyclone, but may become much less unfavorable over the course of the next few days, especially if the Low is indeed starting to track more poleward. This will further complicate recent model runs on Matthew, and may indeed give him an exit.

This wave and associated area of low pressure is not yet Invest tagged, but may soon be, and the title will be updated as necessary.

As of Oct 2cd, this disturbance has been Invest tagged, 98L. The title has been updated.

Convection and organization greatly improved during the overnight hours of Oct 3rd and upon the 11AM Oct 4th update with NHC, advisories have begun on Nicole, the 14th named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Nicole is a hurricane as of Oct 6th. The title has been updated.



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