Sun Nov 13 2016 11:11 PM
Hur. Otto Forecast Lounge

Above: Convectively active tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Nov 13, 2016 10:15PM CST

With some consistency, most models have been forecasting the development of an area of organized low pressure in the central Caribbean this coming week, and it now appears that this development could already be trying to get underway.

Deep convection is blowing up tonight around a SSW-NNE oriented surface trof centered in the general vicinity of 15N 80W and conditions are becoming favorable for tropical cyclone development. Movement is presently more or less stationary, but several models' runs suggest that once a developed tropical cyclone, the forecast cyclone will likely track northwest to northeast, potentially putting numerous locations at risk for a late season named tropical cyclone.

This area is not yet Invest tagged, but the title will be updated as warranted.

The title has been updated to reflect the addition of Invest tag 90L > Updated to TD SIXTEEN > TS Otto

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