GFS isn't really latching on too well but does show a weak area landfalling in the western Florida Panhandle Thursday early morning. The newe Experimental FV3 (Finite Volume Cubed Sphere) GFS shows it a lot better, as a tropical storm.

Euro shows it meandering a bit in the northeast Gulf first, possible TS or SubTS Thursday into the same area.

CMC and Navgem are also similar.

in short, rain event and likely not much more, but very interesting for this time of year.

Interesting footnote the long range (aka Fantasy range) GFS shows a stronger gulf system the week after next)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...051312&fh=6 continues to be one of the better model links.