IsoFlame
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 04 2018 06:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Florence Lounge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...Some pretty large differences show up in the model guidance W/R/T synoptic pattern over the CONUS and western Atlantic for early next week. The ECM shows more significant dampening out of the mid-upper trough, whilst strengthening the eastern CONUS/western Atlantic ridge to a much greater extent through the period. On the other hand, the GFS keeps more of a weakness over the mid Atlantic and SE CONUS during this period.
At the surface, this results in a stronger ECM western Atlantic ridge and freshening easterlies, while the GFS solution shows a weak`bubble` ridge over/offshore north and central Florida. As of late, the pattern has favored strong deep layer ridging to the north, and see no reason why this wouldn`t return once again.



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