Wed Sep 05 2018 07:04 AM

Overnight runs for Florence have shown a trend back to the west with a large threat to somewhere along the US East coast so it's one to watch closely over the next week or two.

The 6Z GFS has a SE Mass/Martha's Vineyard, Cape Cod landfall from the south.
06Z F3 keeps it recurving well out to sea starting Monday.
0Z Euro, landfalling in SC major hurricane on the evening of Thursday sep 13th. (Florence goes to Florence, SC?)
0z CMC Recurves it between Berumda and the US, no landfall.
0Z UKMet keeps it straight west most of its run, leading the pack on the west idea.

Euro ensembles have a fair number into the US, however the current movement is more along the northern side.

Florence will need to be watched, but still too early to say if it will impact the US or not.

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