Wed Sep 05 2018 11:34 AM
Re: 92L Lounge

There was indeed an overnight jump in where the disturbance is centered. From 11N 26.6W at 05 06z to 12.4N 27.4W at 05 1200z.. It is not clear to me if 92L was analyzed much too far south to begin with, or if a new center began to take over, but it looks to be the former.

This will have impacts on model runs going forward, possibly not only changing models' forecast track and intensity of this Invest, but potentially even tweaking some of the steering currents and environments around Major Hurricane Florence, as well as that of waves behind it.

Visible imagery better shows that 92L is not yet nearly a tropical cyclone as the Composite microwave image in the entry above suggested as possible. While a healthy structure exists, the disturbance does not yet have enough organized deep convection.

NHC 50% within 48 hours, 90% within 5 days

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