cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 05 2018 11:34 AM
Re: 92L Lounge

There was indeed an overnight jump in where the disturbance is centered. From 11N 26.6W at 05 06z to 12.4N 27.4W at 05 1200z.. It is not clear to me if 92L was analyzed much too far south to begin with, or if a new center began to take over, but it looks to be the former.

This will have impacts on model runs going forward, possibly not only changing models' forecast track and intensity of this Invest, but potentially even tweaking some of the steering currents and environments around Major Hurricane Florence, as well as that of waves behind it.

Visible imagery better shows that 92L is not yet nearly a tropical cyclone as the Composite microwave image in the entry above suggested as possible. While a healthy structure exists, the disturbance does not yet have enough organized deep convection.

NHC 50% within 48 hours, 90% within 5 days



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center