MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Sep 06 2018 06:09 AM
Re: Florence Lounge

Florence model roundup. In short, extremely large spread.

0z GFS Gets very close if not over Bermuda on Tuesday, moves closer to the US, but no landfall, it meanders well east of cape cod for a few days then moves quickly over Newfoundland on Sept 19th.

6Z GFS takes a cat 3/4 over Bermuda

FV3 GFS stays south of Bermuda and NO landfall.

0z CMC Moves west, just north of Bermuda on Wednesday, cat 2/3 landfall near Wilmington , NC Midday Thursday (13th), moves inland near Raleigh and stalls out.generally over that area and points east through Sunday.

0z Euro is north of Bermuda, then toward Wilmington, but cuts north over the Outer banks as a cat 3/4 and sounds then moves up the Chesapeake Bay, exits over Delaware, then slowly out to sea.

0z UKMET basically straight west along 25N, at the end of the run it's around 25N north of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Ensembles


92L's eventual track also has a lot of dependencies on what Florence does, so avoiding that one for now.



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