Sun Sep 09 2018 05:33 PM
Re: NW Car. - W Gulf Disturbance

The ECMWF Ensemble implied probability of this becoming a TD in the Gulf on or before Thursday Sep 13 is now up to 50%. This looks about right to me. I'd probably even say 60%. Officially, NHC still at 20%, but this is likely to go up, perhaps by a lot, should trends continue.

Folks in Texas and Louisiana may want to start considering preparations for a potential heavy rain maker next week, with flooding likely the biggest risk.

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