cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 10 2018 02:05 PM
Re: 95L Lounge



South Texas has already been dealing with flooding from a combination of upper air disturbances and surface trofs and fronts. This morning a weak near surface to surface Tropical Low is noted inland near the MX/TX border, west of Corpus Christi.

In the western Caribbean, newly-tagged Invest 95L is starting to light up models for development, most notably the ECMWF ensembles, ICON and CMC. Conditions are becoming favorable for development and NHC has just increased their probabilities to 50% within 5 days as the disturbance continues northwest, generally toward Texas:

NHC 2PM TWO
Quote:

Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.





Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center