Mon Sep 10 2018 02:05 PM
Re: 95L Lounge

South Texas has already been dealing with flooding from a combination of upper air disturbances and surface trofs and fronts. This morning a weak near surface to surface Tropical Low is noted inland near the MX/TX border, west of Corpus Christi.

In the western Caribbean, newly-tagged Invest 95L is starting to light up models for development, most notably the ECMWF ensembles, ICON and CMC. Conditions are becoming favorable for development and NHC has just increased their probabilities to 50% within 5 days as the disturbance continues northwest, generally toward Texas:


Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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