cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 21 2018 05:34 PM
Re: 97L Lounge

We have not had the benefit of a scatterometer pass, buoy, ship or recon reports, but relying solely on high-res visible satellite imagery today and satellite-derived surface-adjusted wind analysis based on cloud motions, a case could be made that 97L has become a sheared tropical cyclone .. (unofficially).

Take note of the well-defined LLC in the close-up image below.

With moderate to high shear and dry air continuing to impinge on the cyclone from the west, 97L is not expected to develop any further by almost all models' runs (and that has also been the NHC forecast), but the vigor of this small system may be getting missed owing to its very small size that is likely being poorly captured by the models, especially without the benefit of the usual data ideally being fed into them to work with.

Worth keeping a close eye on as it is still heading west towards the Lesser Antilles.




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