cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 02 2018 02:32 PM
Re: Possible Caribbean Dev Early Oct


GFS 240 Hrs out Valid 10-12-18 12z. Image cr. Tropical Tidbits

Lots of opportunities for the developing gyre to spin out tropical cyclones, and this is being reflected in many model runs. Above is an example from today's 12z GFS showing two concurrent depressions in the southwestern Atlantic on Friday the 12th. It is not clear in this run if either of these would qualify by NHC definition as a T.C. or not, but at ten days out, the signal is still clear.

Other runs of the GFS and other models, including "King Euro," have had similar results.

As a side note, it is also worth mentioning that the CMC had a major upgrade last month, and initial results are promising. Kudos to them, and it might be worth taking a second look at how that model handles this developing weather maker as well.



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